Wisconsin @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Alabama

Weather at kickoff86°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

2-0 · Power #63

final

Final

Alabama

1-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -18.5

✓ ALA W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 15–33 ALA

✓ ALA (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -19.5

CloseALA -18.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -19.5

1 → WIS

CloseALA -18.5

1 pt toward Wisconsin

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -19.5 · closed ALA -18.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel ALA -17.5

model ALA -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 51% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (173 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -19.5

CloseALA -18.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as an 18.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ALA won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 16.2; 49.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	OU vs TULN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–19	W	O49
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-14	27–21	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LW	1-1	50%	—	—
ALA LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UO	1-1	50%	2-0
ALA OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 326 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ALA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WIS 0–1 ALA ALA leads · 1 game since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Alabama 42 @ Wisconsin 10	ALA -15.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.3 →+7.0▲ 1.7#40

ALA+21.0 →+20.7▼ 0.3#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WIS

Longer bar = better

ALA

#56

Offense

ALA better ▶

#35

#26

Defense

◀ WIS better

#59

0.0 #76

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+2.0 #13

67 plays #63

Pace

ALA faster ▶

71 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #63	15.5 #53	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #71	4.69 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #42	+0.12 #96	WIS
Success rate	47% #49	33% #28	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #21	5.0 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.55 #43	3.58 #10	WIS
PPA / play	+0.29 #35	−0.09 #30	Even
Success rate	47% #42	37% #57	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 17 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	1.5	7.0	8.5	10.5	10.5	21.0
ALA allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	3.5	7.0

ALA scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	14.0	10.5	24.5	6.5	14.0	20.5
WIS allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.