Georgia @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

2-0 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee

2-0 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

UGA -3.5

✓ TENN W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 29–26 TENN

✓ UGA (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -6.5

CloseUGA -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -6.5

3 → TENN

CloseUGA -3.5

3 pts toward Tennessee

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -6.5 · closed UGA -3.5 · moved 3 toward TENNmodel UGA -0.5

model UGA -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (152 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (129 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -6.5

CloseUGA -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 3.5-point road favorite at TENN, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 44–41; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 4; 52 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU @ ND 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–14	P	U55.5
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Close	OSU @ PSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3	20–13	W	U47.5
Loose	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-6	20–33	L	U54
Loose	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Loose	UGA @ ALA 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-2	34–41	L	O50
Loose	PSU @ USC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–30	L	O52
Loose	OSU @ ORE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–32	L	O54.5
Loose	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	31–14	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2
TENN WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; TENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA OU	1-1	50%	2-0
TENN OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 463 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
TENN	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UGA 2–0 TENN UGA leads · 2 games since 2023 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Tennessee 17 @ Georgia 31	UGA -7.5	UGA W
Nov 18 2023	Georgia 38 @ Tennessee 10	UGA -9	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+21.0 →+20.1▼ 0.9#7

TENN+17.7 →+17.2▼ 0.5#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UGA

Longer bar = better

TENN

#39

Offense

TENN better ▶

#14

#12

Defense

◀ UGA better

#61

−0.5 #99

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

0.0 #70

76 plays #14

Pace

Even

84 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #43	21.5 #76	UGA
Yards / play	5.98 #70	4.15 #31	TENN
PPA / play	+0.31 #31	0.00 #55	UGA
Success rate	60% #10	41% #83	UGA

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	58.5 #4	6.5 #8	Even
Yards / play	7.20 #23	3.91 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.48 #10	−0.26 #5	Even
Success rate	56% #17	30% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 42 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	10.5	8.5	19.0	10.5	7.0	17.5
TENN allowed	0.0	10.5	10.5	4.5	6.5	11.0

TENN scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	20.5	19.0	39.5	10.5	8.5	19.0
UGA allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	3.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.