Oregon State @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas Tech

Weather at kickoff85°F11 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oregon State

0-2 · Power #100

final

Final

Texas Tech

2-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -23.5

✓ TTU W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 18–41 TTU

✓ TTU (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -24.5

CloseTTU -23.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -24.5

1 → ORST

CloseTTU -23.5

1 pt toward Oregon State

Total

Open60.5

▲ 1

Close61.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -24.5 · closed TTU -23.5 · moved 1 toward ORSTmodel TTU -21.5

model TTU -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 43% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (176 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -24.5

CloseTTU -23.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like TTU as a 23.5-point home favorite against ORST, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 45–14; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 59 points stayed under 61.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21 against an average line of 18.5; 55 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MEM vs TROY 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18.5	38–17	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1
TTU –W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ORST away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OO	2-0	100%	0-2
TTU OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 46% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
TTU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST−5.2 →−5.7▼ 0.5#88

TTU+5.6 →+8.7▲ 3.1#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ORST

Longer bar = better

TTU

#73

Offense

TTU better ▶

#98

Defense

TTU better ▶

−1.5 #127

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

+1.0 #42

72 plays #30

Pace

Even

71 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	ORST off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #105	10.5 #28	TTU
Yards / play	5.84 #73	3.42 #7	TTU
PPA / play	+0.15 #72	−0.70 #1	TTU
Success rate	48% #41	15% #1	TTU

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	64.5 #2	35.0 #121	TTU
Yards / play	8.57 #5	6.24 #115	TTU
PPA / play	+0.51 #8	+0.14 #100	TTU
Success rate	60% #9	37% #56	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 42 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	3.0	6.0	9.0	6.0	6.0	12.0
TTU allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.5	10.5

TTU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	22.0	25.5	47.5	10.5	6.5	17.0
ORST allowed	10.5	8.0	18.5	3.5	13.0	16.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.