Washington State @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at North Texas

Weather at kickoff92°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

2-0 · Power #60

final

Final

North Texas

2-0 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -6.5

✓ UNT W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 26–33 UNT

✓ UNT (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -5.5

CloseUNT -6.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -5.5

1 → UNT

CloseUNT -6.5

1 pt toward North Texas

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -5.5 · closed UNT -6.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel UNT -5

model UNT -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (160 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (153 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -5.5

CloseUNT -6.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 6.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 59–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 58.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 5.3; 45.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU vs GAST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	17–30	L	U62.5
Close	UL vs MRSH 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-5	3–31	L	U57.5
Close	UNLV vs SYR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	41–44	L	O55.5
Close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Close	BOIS vs UNLV 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-4	21–7	W	U57.5
Close	FAU vs OHIO 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–17	L	U61.5
Close	MD vs MSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	KU vs ILL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–23	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU LW	1-1	50%	—	—
UNT WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU UO	1-1	50%	2-0
UNT UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 323 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UNT	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU−2.0 →−1.8▲ 0.2#76

UNT−6.2 →−0.5▲ 5.7#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WSU

Longer bar = better

UNT

#98

Offense

UNT better ▶

#41

#39

Defense

Even

#28

+0.5 #61

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #59

66 plays #74

Pace

UNT faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	WSU off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #89	15.0 #48	UNT
Yards / play	4.60 #119	3.38 #6	UNT
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	−0.11 #20	UNT
Success rate	41% #90	34% #38	UNT

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #31	11.5 #34	Even
Yards / play	6.29 #53	3.49 #8	WSU
PPA / play	+0.35 #25	−0.12 #19	Even
Success rate	46% #55	42% #95	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 42 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	3.5	9.5	13.0	6.5	5.0	11.5
UNT allowed	0.0	8.5	8.5	3.5	1.5	5.0

UNT scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	6.5	15.5	22.0	12.0	5.0	17.0
WSU allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	3.0	5.0	8.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.