Duke @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tulane

Weather at kickoff84°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Duke

1-1 · Power #47

final

Final

Tulane

2-0 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -1.5

✓ TULN W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 25–26 TULN

✓ TULN (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -2.5

CloseDUKE -1.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -2.5

4 → DUKE

CloseDUKE -1.5

4 pts toward Duke

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -2.5 · closed DUKE -1.5 · moved 4 toward DUKEmodel TULN -11

model TULN -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 48% (112 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (109 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -2.5

CloseDUKE -1.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 1.5-point road favorite at TULN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 34–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 2.5; 57 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UNC @ DUKE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	20–21	L	U55.5
Loose	UTSA @ UAB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-2.5	44–38	W	O53.25
Loose	ND @ SYR 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-0.5	41–24	W	O48
Loose	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Loose	UVA @ WAKE 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & spread	-1	31–30	P	O55.5
Loose	UVA @ CCU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	43–24	W	O52
Loose	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Loose	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Loose	KU @ BAY 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–45	L	P62
Loose	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	6–34	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE –L	0-1	0%	—	—
TULN WL	1-1	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; TULN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OO	2-0	100%	1-1
TULN UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 439 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	6-4 60%
TULN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+1.9 →−0.3▼ 2.2#68

TULN+5.1 →+7.0▲ 1.9#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

DUKE

Longer bar = better

TULN

#30

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#66

#94

Defense

TULN better ▶

#61

−3.0 #137

Turnovers

TULN better ▶

+3.0 #1

61 plays #115

Pace

TULN faster ▶

73 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #60	17.0 #47	Even
Yards / play	8.08 #8	5.14 #70	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.36 #24	−0.09 #26	Even
Success rate	51% #29	44% #102	DUKE

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #75	31.0 #116	TULN
Yards / play	5.66 #79	5.14 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #59	+0.25 #121	TULN
Success rate	46% #51	38% #66	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 101 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	3.0	8.5	11.5	10.0	10.5	20.5
TULN allowed	8.5	0.0	8.5	0.0	8.5	8.5

TULN scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	10.5	11.5	22.0	3.0	3.0	6.0
DUKE allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	7.0	12.0	19.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.