Navy @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Navy

2-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

1-1 · Power #113

final

Closing spread

NAVY -13.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 34–20 TLSA

✓ NAVY (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -14.5

CloseNAVY -13.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -14.5

1 → TLSA

CloseNAVY -13.5

1 pt toward Tulsa

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -14.5 · closed NAVY -13.5 · moved 1 toward TLSAmodel NAVY -16

model NAVY -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 46% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (183 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -14.5

CloseNAVY -13.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 13.5-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 42–23; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 12.1; 51.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UAB @ ULM 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-11	6–32	L	U55
Close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Close	LIB @ FIU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-10	38–6	W	U53.5
Close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	45–28	W	O50
Close	JMU @ ULM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	19–21	L	U48
Close	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Close	SMU @ RICE 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-12.5	36–31	L	O59
Close	UNLV @ HAW 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-12.5	29–27	L	O50.5
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	31–21	P	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
TLSA WL	1-1	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OO	2-0	100%	2-0
TLSA UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 439 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%
TLSA	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY+1.2 →+3.6▲ 2.4#52

TLSA−18.6 →−14.1▲ 4.5#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NAVY

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#10

Offense

◀ NAVY better

#83

#68

Defense

TLSA better ▶

#47

+1.5 #18

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

−0.5 #93

65 plays #85

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

79 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #19	14.0 #32	Even
Yards / play	7.90 #12	4.24 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.53 #3	+0.03 #64	NAVY
Success rate	61% #4	38% #61	NAVY

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #88	15.5 #40	NAVY
Yards / play	5.57 #83	5.68 #99	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.06 #76	Even
Success rate	42% #81	38% #57	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 101 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	10.5	15.5	26.0	8.5	10.5	19.0
TLSA allowed	1.5	0.0	1.5	3.5	9.0	12.5

TLSA scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.5	1.5	5.0	9.0	10.5	19.5
NAVY allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	3.5	0.0	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.