Tulane @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at South Alabama

Weather at kickoff86°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

1-0 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

South Alabama

1-0 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

TULN -13.5

✓ USA W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 33–21 USA

✓ TULN (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -10.5

CloseTULN -13.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -10.5

3 → TULN

CloseTULN -13.5

3 pts toward Tulane

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -10.5 · closed TULN -13.5 · moved 3 toward TULNmodel TULN -6

model TULN -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 46% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (150 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -10.5

CloseTULN -13.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 13.5-point road favorite at USA, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 33–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 12.4; 49.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-12	24–20	L	U52
Loose	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Loose	SMU @ RICE 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-12.5	36–31	L	O59
Loose	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Loose	WASH @ MSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-15	41–7	W	U57.25
Loose	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Loose	MSST @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-12.5	39–17	W	U58
Loose	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Loose	ARMY @ TLSA 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & total	-13.5	49–7	W	O50.5
Loose	USA @ UL 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-8.5	20–17	L	U47.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
USA L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; USA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN U	0-1	0%	1-0
USA O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 469 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
USA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TULN 1–0 USA TULN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TULN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 2 2023	South Alabama 17 @ Tulane 37	TULN -7	TULN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+5.1 →+6.5▲ 1.4#41

USA−2.3 →−1.4▲ 0.9#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

TULN

Longer bar = better

USA

#70

Offense

USA better ▶

#39

#36

Defense

◀ TULN better

#84

+5.0 #1

Turnovers

Even

+3.0 #9

74 plays #31

Pace

◀ TULN faster

56 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #83	21.0 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.69 #68	5.02 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #66	+0.06 #80	Even
Success rate	45% #62	40% #83	TULN

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #44	3.0 #16	TULN
Yards / play	6.55 #41	3.76 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #40	−0.36 #11	TULN
Success rate	54% #30	41% #90	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.