Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Marshall
Closing spread
MRSH -7.5
✓ MOST W
Total
53.5
▼ Under · 41 pts
Model before kickoff
MOST 23–34 MRSH
✗ MRSH (77%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMRSH -9.5
CloseMRSH -7.5
Total56.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMRSH -9.5
2 → MOST
CloseMRSH -7.5
2 pts toward Missouri State
Total
Open56.5
▼ 3
Close53.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MRSH -9.5 · closed MRSH -7.5 · moved 2 toward MOSTmodel MRSH -22.5
model MRSH -22.5
Opened 56.5 · closed 53.5 · moved 3 downmodel 57.5
model 57.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 56% (128 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (121 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMRSH -9.5
CloseMRSH -7.5
Total56.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
MRSH as a 7.5-point home favorite against MOST. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Missouri State ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Missouri State
2 pts (MRSH -9.5 → MRSH -7.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 3
56.5 → 53.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Missouri State has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MOSTlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 1-2 33% | 3-0 100% |
| MRSH | 8-2 80% | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
MOST−21.0 →−22.1▼ 1.1#135
MRSH−1.7 →−4.7▼ 3.0#87
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
MOSTLonger bar = better
MRSH#119
Offense
Even#129
#136
Defense
Even#125
−2.0 #117
Turnovers
MRSH better ▶0.0 #84
57 plays #117
Pace
Even52 plays #129
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When MOST has the ball| MOST off | MRSH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 13.0 #113 | 45.0 #130 | Even |
| Yards / play | 3.93 #121 | 6.42 #117 | Even |
| PPA / play | −0.05 #110 | +0.41 #127 | Even |
| Success rate | 24% #133 | 56% #125 | Even |
When MRSH has the ball| MRSH off | MOST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 7.0 #131 | 73.0 #136 | Even |
| Yards / play | 3.98 #119 | 10.47 #136 | Even |
| PPA / play | −0.28 #130 | +0.99 #136 | Even |
| Success rate | 17% #136 | 74% #136 | Even |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MRSH +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
64° · 5 mph
gusts 12 mph · at kickoff
Rest
MOST7d
MRSH7d
Even
Tempo
Slow 109 plays
slowavg 133fast
Quarterback
MRSH backup QB started
Not the usual starter
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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