Missouri State @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at USC

Weather at kickoff90°F7 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Missouri State

0-0 · Power #112

final

Final

USC

0-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -36.5

✓ USC W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

MOST 10–48 USC

✓ USC (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -35.5

CloseUSC -36.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -35.5

1 → USC

CloseUSC -36.5

1 pt toward USC

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -35.5 · closed USC -36.5 · moved 1 toward USCmodel USC -42.5

model USC -42.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 34.5–38.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 50% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (132 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -35.5

CloseUSC -36.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 36.5-point home favorite against MOST, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 73–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 60.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 42.1 against an average line of 36.3; 49.3 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Close	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Close	MICH vs UNLV 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-38	35–7	L	U57.5
Close	ORE vs HAW 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-38.25	55–10	W	U67.75
Close	TEX vs RICE 2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total	-35.25	37–10	L	U59
Close	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Close	TEX vs CSU 2024 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread	-35	52–0	W	U62.5
Close	MIZ vs BUFF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-34.5	38–0	W	U52
Close	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Close	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found