Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Michigan
Closing spread
MICH -34.5
✓ UNM W
Total
49.5
▲ Over · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
UNM 13–47 MICH
✓ MICH (99%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMICH -34.5
CloseMICH -34.5
Total49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -34.5
no move
CloseMICH -34.5
No change since the open
Total
Open49.5
no move
Close49.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -34.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -32
model MICH -32
Opened 49.5 · unchangedmodel 59
model 59
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 32.5–36.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 54% (56 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMICH -34.5
CloseMICH -34.5
Total49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MICH as a 34.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: MICH won 34–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 59%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 31 against an average line of 32.5; 50.8 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  CLEM vs  LT2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-33.5 | 48–20 | L | O53.5 |
| Close |  MSU vs  AKR2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation |
-34.5 | 52–0 | W | U56 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation |
-34.5 | 38–0 | W | U52 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-35.25 | 37–10 | L | U59 |
| Loose |  BAY vs  TXST2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total |
-30 | 42–7 | W | U53 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total |
-34 | 41–31 | L | O53.5 |
| Loose |  PSU vs  OHIO2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation |
-28 | 46–10 | W | O55 |
| Loose |  MSST vs  BGSU2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation |
-31 | 45–14 | P | O53 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total |
-28 | 22–7 | L | U48.5 |
| Loose |  MINN vs  NMSU2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-36 | 38–0 | W | U52.5 |
MIZ
BUFF
TEX
RICE
UGA
FLA
CLTHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
New Mexico have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 397 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 UNM | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| MICH | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MICH +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
65° · 1 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UNM1st game
MICH1st game
Even
Travel
UNM 1,326 mi
2 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
New Mexicovs IDST →
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BOIS @ 
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WYO @ 
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CIN
M-OH @ 
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WMU @ 
UNLV @ 
SHSU