Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Clemson
Closing spread
CLEM -5.5
✓ LSU W
Total
55.5
▼ Under · 27 pts
Model before kickoff
LSU 27–32 CLEM
✗ CLEM (64%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCLEM -3.5
CloseCLEM -5.5
Total57.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCLEM -3.5
2 → CLEM
CloseCLEM -5.5
2 pts toward Clemson
Total
Open57.5
▼ 2
Close55.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CLEM -3.5 · closed CLEM -5.5 · moved 2 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -3
model CLEM -3
Opened 57.5 · closed 55.5 · moved 2 downmodel 59
model 59
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 58% (117 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (139 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCLEM -3.5
CloseCLEM -5.5
Total57.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CLEM as a 5.5-point home favorite against LSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: LSU won 17–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 55.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 63%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 6.3; 52.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & situation |
-6 | 44–31 | W | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-9 | 27–10 | W | U51 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-6.5 | 27–34 | L | O55 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread |
-7.5 | 34–12 | W | U57.5 |
| Close |  FLA vs  UK2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation |
-6 | 16–26 | L | U52.75 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2.5 | 34–35 | L | O61.5 |
| Close |  ARK vs  CIN2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-6.5 | 31–24 | W | O54.5 |
| Close |  MISS vs UK2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread |
-6.5 | 22–19 | L | U55 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread |
-7 | 34–17 | W | U63 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 41–3 | W | U60 |
KSU
UCF
TA&M
AUB
LOU
SMU
MIZ
SC
TCUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Clemson ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Clemson
2 pts (CLEM -3.5 → CLEM -5.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
57.5 → 55.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
LSU have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 LSU | 7-3 70% | 5-4 56% | 3-6 33% |
| CLEM | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CLEM +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
75° · 6 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LSU1st game
CLEM1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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