SMU @ Missouri State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Missouri State

Weather at kickoff92°F5 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

SMU

1-1 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Missouri State

1-1 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

SMU -28.5

✓ MOST W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 43–16 MOST

✓ SMU (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -27.5

CloseSMU -28.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -27.5

1 → SMU

CloseSMU -28.5

1 pt toward SMU

Total

Open61.5

▼ 2

Close59.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -27.5 · closed SMU -28.5 · moved 1 toward SMUmodel SMU -22

model SMU -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (153 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -27.5

CloseSMU -28.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 28.5-point road favorite at MOST, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 28–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 29.6 against an average line of 27.9; 57.2 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIZ @ MASS 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	45–3	W	U53.5
Close	MD @ CLT 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-28	56–21	W	O65
Loose	KU @ NEV 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-28.5	31–24	L	U58
Loose	USA @ USM 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-24	35–14	L	U54
Loose	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Loose	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-26	56–23	W	O50
Loose	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & rest	-24	55–0	W	O53
Loose	ORE @ PUR 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest	-29.5	35–0	W	U61
Loose	ORE @ COLO 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-31	49–10	W	U62.5
Loose	UTSA @ FIU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-33.5	30–10	L	U63.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2
MOST LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; MOST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
MOST OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MOSTlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+12.5 →+6.6▼ 5.9#44

MOST−21.0 →−16.3▲ 4.7#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

SMU

Longer bar = better

MOST

#49

Offense

◀ SMU better

#94

#90

Defense

◀ SMU better

#128

+0.5 #54

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

−1.0 #114

65 plays #86

Pace

Even

64 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #26	46.5 #135	SMU
Yards / play	6.65 #37	7.64 #131	SMU
PPA / play	+0.16 #70	+0.33 #128	SMU
Success rate	44% #61	47% #119	SMU

When MOST has the ball

Even matchup

	MOST off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #114	30.5 #112	Even
Yards / play	5.50 #84	5.53 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #58	−0.05 #41	Even
Success rate	36% #119	45% #112	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 42 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	12.0	10.5	22.5	3.5	14.0	17.5
MOST allowed	7.0	22.5	29.5	8.5	8.5	17.0

MOST scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	1.5	7.0	8.5	5.0	3.5	8.5
SMU allowed	0.0	12.0	12.0	1.5	12.0	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.