Middle Tennessee @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Nevada

Weather at kickoff77°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

0-2 · Power #128

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

1-1 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

NEV -9.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 22–32 NEV

✗ NEV (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEV -8.5

CloseNEV -9.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEV -8.5

1 → NEV

CloseNEV -9.5

1 pt toward Nevada

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEV -8.5 · closed NEV -9.5 · moved 1 toward NEVmodel NEV -13

model NEV -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 44% (101 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (157 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEV -8.5

CloseNEV -9.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEV as a 9.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 14–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 8.8; 41.6 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-10	14–21	L	U49
Close	MTSU vs KENN 2024 · Week 8 · close	-8.5	14–5	W	U50
Close	CSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-6	17–13	L	U46
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Loose	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10	28–0	W	U44
Loose	OHIO vs AKR 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-10	55–34	W	O59
Loose	CSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8.5	27–17	W	U49
Loose	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Loose	HAW vs SHSU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.25	37–20	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
NEV WL	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; NEV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UO	1-1	50%	0-2
NEV OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
NEV	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−18.0 →−18.1▼ 0.1#131

NEV−9.7 →−11.9▼ 2.2#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MTSU

Longer bar = better

NEV

#128

Offense

NEV better ▶

#108

#113

Defense

Even

#119

+0.5 #63

Turnovers

◀ MTSU better

−2.0 #132

60 plays #120

Pace

Even

61 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #127	31.5 #115	Even
Yards / play	3.31 #135	6.18 #114	NEV
PPA / play	−0.11 #131	+0.26 #121	Even
Success rate	36% #118	49% #124	Even

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #121	38.0 #126	Even
Yards / play	5.06 #102	5.90 #104	Even
PPA / play	−0.18 #134	+0.29 #123	Even
Success rate	42% #75	42% #98	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 64 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	1.5	7.0	8.5	3.5	0.0	3.5
NEV allowed	8.5	13.5	22.0	6.0	3.5	9.5

NEV scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	0.0	8.0	8.0	0.0	7.5	7.5
MTSU allowed	7.0	10.5	17.5	8.5	12.0	20.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.