Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Georgia Southern

Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

1-1 · Power #101

final

Final

Georgia Southern

0-2 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

GASO -3.5

✓ GASO W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 29–31 GASO

✓ GASO (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -3.5

CloseGASO -3.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGASO -3.5

no move

CloseGASO -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GASO -3.5 · unchangedmodel JXST -1

model JXST -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (223 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -3.5

CloseGASO -3.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 3.5-point home favorite against JXST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 41–34; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 57.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 3.2; 48.8 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JXST vs USM 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	44–7	W	U59.5
Close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Loose	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	31–23	W	P54
Loose	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Loose	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	14–33	L	U61.5
Loose	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51.5
Loose	GAST vs ODU 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	14–21	L	U53.5
Loose	UAB vs TLSA 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & spread	-2.5	59–21	W	O57.5
Loose	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Loose	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	48–26	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
GASO LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; GASO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UO	1-1	50%	1-1
GASO OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 376 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
GASO	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−6.4▼ 1.3#91

GASO−5.7 →−10.2▼ 4.5#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

JXST

Longer bar = better

GASO

#91

Offense

◀ JXST better

#109

#101

Defense

◀ JXST better

#137

+1.0 #26

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #37

66 plays #80

Pace

◀ JXST faster

64 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #100	50.5 #137	JXST
Yards / play	5.44 #87	9.50 #137	JXST
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.52 #136	JXST
Success rate	40% #98	64% #137	JXST

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #115	20.5 #69	JXST
Yards / play	4.87 #108	7.03 #126	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #97	+0.20 #113	Even
Success rate	36% #116	42% #96	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 74 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	5.0	8.5	13.5
GASO allowed	15.5	6.5	22.0	14.5	14.0	28.5

GASO scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	6.5	7.0	13.5	3.5	0.0	3.5
JXST allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	1.5	14.0	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.