App State @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

App State

2-0 · Power #115

final

Final

Southern Miss

1-1 · Power #98

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -2.5

✓ USM W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 30–25 USM

✗ APP (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -2.5

CloseAPP -2.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSM -2.5

5 → APP

CloseAPP -2.5

5 pts toward App State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 3

Close56.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USM -2.5 · closed APP -2.5 · moved 5 toward APPmodel APP -11.5

model APP -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 45% (166 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (108 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -2.5

CloseAPP -2.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 2.5-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USM won 38–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 3.7; 62.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Loose	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Loose	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Loose	TOL @ WKU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–26	L	U60.5
Loose	JXST @ WKU 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-0.5	17–19	L	U62.5
Loose	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · loose	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Loose	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Loose	TTU @ BAY 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	39–14	W	U59.5
Loose	ODU @ ARST 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	40–32	W	O58.5
Loose	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
USM LW	1-1	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: APP away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP –U	0-1	0%	2-0
USM UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 399 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	1-7 13%
USM	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

APP 1–2 USM USM leads · 3 games since 2014 · USM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Southern Miss 38 @ App State 48	APP -16	USM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−6.4 →−3.5▲ 2.9#80

USM−18.7 →−16.8▲ 1.9#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

APP

Longer bar = better

USM

#52

Offense

◀ APP better

#101

#33

Defense

◀ APP better

#89

−0.5 #98

Turnovers

USM better ▶

+1.0 #39

78 plays #9

Pace

◀ APP faster

71 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #77	27.0 #103	APP
Yards / play	7.03 #28	5.35 #88	APP
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.06 #84	Even
Success rate	52% #26	40% #79	APP

When USM has the ball

Advantage: APP defense

	USM off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #75	12.0 #35	APP
Yards / play	4.68 #114	3.53 #9	APP
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	−0.01 #52	APP
Success rate	39% #105	34% #34	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 74 FBS teams

APP scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	6.5	5.0	11.5
USM allowed	6.5	5.0	11.5	10.5	5.0	15.5

USM scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	8.5	5.0	13.5	3.5	10.5	14.0
APP allowed	1.5	3.0	4.5	0.0	7.5	7.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.