Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Louisiana Tech

Weather at kickoff83°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

2-1 · Power #98

final

Final

Louisiana Tech

2-1 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -3.5

✓ LT W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 22–26 LT

✓ LT (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -1.5

CloseLT -3.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -1.5

2 → LT

CloseLT -3.5

2 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -1.5 · closed LT -3.5 · moved 2 toward LTmodel LT -7

model LT -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (228 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (76 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -1.5

CloseLT -3.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 3.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 30–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 4.4; 44.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN vs BUFF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	47–3	W	O44.5
Close	SJSU vs UNLV 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-6.5	40–7	W	U51.5
Close	UNM vs NMSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.75	17–27	L	U52.25
Close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Close	JXST vs EMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	21–0	W	U51
Close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & total	-3	6–10	L	U47
Close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	6–13	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LWW	2-1	67%	—	1-1
LT WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
LT UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
LT	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−18.7 →−12.7▲ 6.0#117

LT−11.6 →−8.4▲ 3.2#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USM

Longer bar = better

#80

Offense

Even

#86

#71

Defense

LT better ▶

#39

+1.3 #27

Turnovers

LT better ▶

+2.0 #2

66 plays #75

Pace

◀ USM faster

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	USM off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #65	12.3 #23	LT
Yards / play	5.32 #101	4.72 #47	LT
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	−0.04 #34	LT
Success rate	42% #80	37% #51	LT

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #81	25.3 #90	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #107	5.30 #76	USM
PPA / play	+0.15 #71	−0.02 #43	USM
Success rate	42% #86	40% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

USM scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	8.0 #40	6.7 #96	14.7 #78	4.7 #93	11.7 #11	16.3 #43
LT allowed	2.3 #30	5.7 #45	8.0 #38	2.3 #24	2.0 #13	4.3 #9

LT scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	3.3 #111	6.7 #96	10.0 #105	7.0 #57	9.7 #31	16.7 #40
USM allowed	6.7 #94	3.3 #20	10.0 #52	9.3 #121	6.0 #69	15.3 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.