James Madison @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Liberty

Weather at kickoff79°F7 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

James Madison

1-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Liberty

1-2 · Power #104

final

Closing spread

JMU -7.5

✓ JMU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 27–20 LIB

✓ JMU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -11.5

CloseJMU -7.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -11.5

4 → LIB

CloseJMU -7.5

4 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -11.5 · closed JMU -7.5 · moved 4 toward LIBmodel JMU -1

model JMU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (108 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -11.5

CloseJMU -7.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 7.5-point road favorite at LIB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: JMU won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 5.4; 44.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & total	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	SJSU @ FRES 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7	10–17	L	U47
Close	SYR @ NCSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form	-1	24–17	W	U51.5
Loose	TOL @ EMU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form	-4	27–24	L	U54
Loose	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · loose	-9	31–3	W	U52
Loose	JMU @ CCU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings	-4	56–14	W	O50.5
Loose	LIB @ BGSU 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6	13–23	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
LIB LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; LIB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OU	1-1	50%	1-1
LIB UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
LIB	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU−2.2 →−0.8▲ 1.4#72

LIB−5.7 →−4.1▲ 1.6#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

JMU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#89

Offense

LIB better ▶

#74

#20

Defense

◀ JMU better

#62

0.0 #74

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−1.3 #125

75 plays #16

Pace

◀ JMU faster

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	JMU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #71	21.3 #71	Even
Yards / play	4.84 #117	5.23 #71	LIB
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.06 #74	LIB
Success rate	44% #70	35% #32	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	LIB off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #101	19.0 #55	JMU
Yards / play	6.26 #50	3.75 #12	JMU
PPA / play	+0.10 #84	−0.16 #12	JMU
Success rate	45% #59	24% #2	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	10.5	7.0	17.5	5.0	7.0	12.0
LIB allowed	3.3 #44	8.0 #76	11.3 #59	3.3 #36	6.7 #73	10.0 #57

LIB scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	2.3 #110	3.3 #114	5.7 #117	2.3 #105	13.7 #4	16.0 #43
JMU allowed	0.0	6.5	6.5	5.5	7.0	12.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.