UConn @ Delaware: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Delaware

Weather at kickoff80°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

UConn

1-1 · Power #87

final

Final

Delaware

1-1 · Power #117

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -9.5

✓ DEL W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 32–22 DEL

✗ CONN (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -10.5

CloseCONN -9.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -10.5

1 → DEL

CloseCONN -9.5

1 pt toward Delaware

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -10.5 · closed CONN -9.5 · moved 1 toward DELmodel CONN -13

model CONN -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 49% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (175 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -10.5

CloseCONN -9.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 9.5-point road favorite at DEL, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEL won 44–41 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.8 against an average line of 9.5; 57.8 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Very close	LIB @ FIU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	38–6	W	U53.5
Very close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	UL @ ULM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	17–21	L	U51
Close	UL @ ULM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	37–23	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
DEL LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; DEL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OU	1-1	50%	1-1
DEL UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q2. Of 480 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DELlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.2 →−2.2▲ 2.0#77

DEL−22.6 →−16.5▲ 6.1#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CONN

Longer bar = better

DEL

#35

Offense

◀ CONN better

#68

#74

Defense

◀ CONN better

#99

+1.0 #29

Turnovers

◀ CONN better

−0.5 #104

75 plays #18

Pace

◀ CONN faster

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	DEL def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #36	24.0 #91	CONN
Yards / play	7.09 #27	5.45 #90	CONN
PPA / play	+0.29 #37	+0.21 #116	CONN
Success rate	48% #39	42% #97	CONN

When DEL has the ball

Even matchup

	DEL off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #106	20.0 #66	CONN
Yards / play	6.06 #65	4.95 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #55	+0.04 #70	Even
Success rate	47% #47	42% #88	DEL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 40 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the DEL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.0	17.5	24.5	6.5	8.5	15.0
DEL allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	7.0	7.0	14.0

DEL scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEL scored	0.0	10.5	10.5	3.5	7.0	10.5
CONN allowed	3.5	4.5	8.0	1.5	7.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.