Memphis @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Georgia State

Weather at kickoff80°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Memphis

1-0 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

0-1 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

MEM -15.5

✓ MEM W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 37–22 GAST

✓ MEM (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -13.5

CloseMEM -15.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -13.5

2 → MEM

CloseMEM -15.5

2 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open54.5

▲ 3

Close57.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -13.5 · closed MEM -15.5 · moved 2 toward MEMmodel MEM -12

model MEM -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–17.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 51% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (150 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -13.5

CloseMEM -15.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like MEM as a 15.5-point road favorite at GAST, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 38–16; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 54 points stayed under 57.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 17.5; 48 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CCU @ TEM 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	28–20	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
GAST L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; GAST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM U	0-1	0%	1-0
GAST O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.2 →+2.8▲ 0.6#56

GAST−9.1 →−11.2▼ 2.1#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MEM

Longer bar = better

GAST

#27

Offense

◀ MEM better

#123

#34

Defense

◀ MEM better

#132

+1.0 #46

Turnovers

GAST better ▶

+1.0 #30

61 plays #96

Pace

Even

60 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #25	63.0 #135	MEM
Yards / play	7.08 #28	8.58 #134	MEM
PPA / play	+0.38 #34	+0.40 #126	MEM
Success rate	57% #20	64% #134	MEM

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	GAST off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	7.0 #127	10.0 #45	MEM
Yards / play	4.33 #113	4.14 #45	MEM
PPA / play	−0.07 #117	−0.26 #17	MEM
Success rate	22% #135	30% #30	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.