San Diego State @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Washington State

Weather at kickoff79°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

1-0 · Power #68

final

Final

Washington State

1-0 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSU -2.5

✓ WSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 25–29 WSU

✓ WSU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -1.5

CloseWSU -2.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -1.5

1 → WSU

CloseWSU -2.5

1 pt toward Washington State

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -1.5 · closed WSU -2.5 · moved 1 toward WSUmodel WSU -12.5

model WSU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (226 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (149 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -1.5

CloseWSU -2.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like WSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: WSU won 36–13; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 6 similar games. 49 points went over 46.5, as in 2 of 6.

Favorite won

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 4.7; 45.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Loose	FAU vs ARMY 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	7–24	L	U42.5
Loose	APP vs JMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-6.25	28–32	L	O57
Loose	NCSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	24–17	P	U46.5
Loose	HOU vs RICE 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4.5	33–7	W	U44
Loose	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · loose	-5.5	24–27	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU –	0-0	—	—	—
WSU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; WSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU U	0-1	0%	1-0
WSU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 355 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%
WSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SDSU 0–1 WSU WSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Washington State 29 @ San Diego State 26	WSU -17.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−12.0 →−9.4▲ 2.6#105

WSU−2.0 →−1.6▲ 0.4#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

SDSU

Longer bar = better

WSU

#66

Offense

◀ SDSU better

#126

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#42

0.0 #65

Turnovers

WSU better ▶

+1.0 #37

83 plays #3

Pace

◀ SDSU faster

54 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU defense

	SDSU off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #27	10.0 #25	Even
Yards / play	5.59 #81	3.40 #9	WSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #70	−0.11 #24	WSU
Success rate	41% #84	44% #108	SDSU

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	WSU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #125	0.0 #1	SDSU
Yards / play	3.91 #133	1.79 #2	SDSU
PPA / play	−0.02 #119	−0.29 #3	SDSU
Success rate	35% #125	16% #3	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.