Arkansas @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F4 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-0 · Power #40

final

Final

Ole Miss

2-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -4.5

✓ MISS W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 27–33 MISS

✓ MISS (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -8.5

CloseMISS -4.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -8.5

4 → ARK

CloseMISS -4.5

4 pts toward Arkansas

Total

Open60.5

no move

Close60.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -8.5 · closed MISS -4.5 · moved 4 toward ARKmodel MISS -12

model MISS -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (149 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 64% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -8.5

CloseMISS -4.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 4.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 41–35; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 5.2; 53.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTAH vs UCLA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–7	W	U51
Loose	ALA vs MISS 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	24–10	W	U55.5
Loose	MSST vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-9	31–24	L	U60
Loose	TCU vs UCF 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–35	L	O61.5
Loose	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Loose	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Loose	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Loose	OSU vs PSU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	20–12	W	U46.5
Loose	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & rest	-7.5	38–20	W	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LW	1-1	50%	—	—
MISS WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK UO	1-1	50%	2-0
MISS OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 224 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MISS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARK 0–2 MISS MISS leads · 2 games since 2023 · MISS has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Ole Miss 63 @ Arkansas 31	MISS -7.5	MISS W
Oct 7 2023	Arkansas 20 @ Ole Miss 27	MISS -10.5	ARK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+8.7 →+11.0▲ 2.3#27

MISS+19.8 →+19.7▼ 0.1#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ARK

Longer bar = better

MISS

Offense

◀ ARK better

#27

#47

Defense

Even

#48

+1.0 #34

Turnovers

◀ ARK better

−1.5 #121

67 plays #60

Pace

MISS faster ▶

77 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #5	15.0 #47	ARK
Yards / play	8.82 #4	4.76 #63	ARK
PPA / play	+0.55 #5	+0.02 #61	ARK
Success rate	59% #11	31% #19	Even

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #19	10.5 #25	Even
Yards / play	7.52 #18	3.91 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #46	+0.01 #58	Even
Success rate	53% #25	41% #84	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 74 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	19.0	14.0	33.0	14.0	7.0	21.0
MISS allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	3.5	1.5	5.0

MISS scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	3.5	17.5	21.0	13.5	12.0	25.5
ARK allowed	7.0	3.5	10.5	0.0	0.0	0.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.