Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Kentucky

Weather at kickoff77°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

0-2 · Power #123

final

Final

Kentucky

1-1 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -26.5

✓ EMU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 12–39 UK

✓ UK (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -25.5

CloseUK -26.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUK -25.5

1 → UK

CloseUK -26.5

1 pt toward Kentucky

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UK -25.5 · closed UK -26.5 · moved 1 toward UKmodel UK -27

model UK -27

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 52% (61 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (160 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -25.5

CloseUK -26.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 26.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 48–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17 against an average line of 26; 53.2 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Close	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-24	32–15	L	U54
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Close	SJSU vs NEV 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-24.5	35–28	L	O44.5
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	42–7	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
UK LW	1-1	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OU	1-1	50%	0-2
UK UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 468 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
UK	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−11.0 →−15.5▼ 4.5#125

UK+5.2 →+6.9▲ 1.7#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

EMU

Longer bar = better

#80

Offense

◀ EMU better

#96

#132

Defense

UK better ▶

#74

0.0 #69

Turnovers

UK better ▶

+0.5 #52

61 plays #109

Pace

UK faster ▶

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #85	23.0 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.80 #76	5.56 #95	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #54	+0.02 #59	Even
Success rate	39% #103	38% #62	UK

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #95	40.0 #131	UK
Yards / play	4.88 #107	8.04 #136	UK
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.44 #134	UK
Success rate	42% #81	50% #128	UK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 88 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	3.0	10.5	13.5	0.0	11.5	11.5
UK allowed	0.0	9.5	9.5	5.0	8.5	13.5

UK scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	7.0	4.5	11.5	3.5	8.5	12.0
EMU allowed	10.5	8.5	19.0	7.0	14.0	21.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.