Kentucky @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 5 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F7 mphgusts 12Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kentucky

2-1 · Power #52

final

Final

South Carolina

2-2 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

SC -6.5

✓ SC W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 19–25 SC

✓ SC (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -6.5

CloseSC -6.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSC -6.5

no move

CloseSC -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SC -6.5 · unchangedmodel SC -2.5

model SC -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (181 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -6.5

CloseSC -6.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 6.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 35–13; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 5.4; 50 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	3–7	L	U46
Very close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LWL	1-2	33%	—	1-0
SC WLLW	2-2	50%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
SC UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 391 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SC	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UK 0–2 SC SC leads · 2 games since 2023 · SC has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	South Carolina 31 @ Kentucky 6	UK -9.5	SC W
Nov 18 2023	Kentucky 14 @ South Carolina 17	SC -2	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.2 →+6.3▲ 1.1#41

SC+13.9 →+6.3▼ 7.6#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

#71

Offense

◀ UK better

#105

#64

Defense

Even

#68

+0.7 #42

Turnovers

◀ UK better

+0.3 #59

68 plays #55

Pace

◀ UK faster

56 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #62	20.3 #55	Even
Yards / play	5.69 #80	5.09 #55	SC
PPA / play	+0.16 #68	+0.08 #72	Even
Success rate	44% #74	43% #88	Even

When SC has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	SC off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #100	23.0 #71	UK
Yards / play	5.34 #103	5.82 #95	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	−0.02 #28	UK
Success rate	35% #131	40% #62	UK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UK scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	9.3 #29	7.7 #91	17.0 #57	5.7 #76	9.0 #33	14.7 #56
SC allowed	3.0 #42	6.3 #60	9.3 #41	3.3 #36	7.8 #98	11.0 #62

SC scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	3.5 #113	8.5 #73	12.0 #99	6.8 #60	3.5 #122	10.3 #102
UK allowed	1.0 #11	10.7 #120	11.7 #71	3.3 #38	8.0 #105	11.3 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.