UAB @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Tennessee

Weather at kickoff83°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

UAB

2-1 · Power #119

final

Final

Tennessee

2-1 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -38.5

✓ UAB W

Total

68.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 13–51 TENN

✓ TENN (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -37.5

CloseTENN -38.5

Total68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -37.5

1 → TENN

CloseTENN -38.5

1 pt toward Tennessee

Total

Open68.5

no move

Close68.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -37.5 · closed TENN -38.5 · moved 1 toward TENNmodel TENN -36.5

model TENN -36.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 37.5–39.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 58% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (165 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -37.5

CloseTENN -38.5

Total68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 38.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 56–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 68.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 44.5 against an average line of 36.7; 58.7 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE vs HAW 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-38.25	55–10	W	U67.75
Close	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Loose	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Loose	LSU vs GAST 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-32	56–14	W	U73.5
Loose	USC vs COLO 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-34.5	55–17	W	O66
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Loose	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-41	49–21	L	O56
Loose	ALA vs VAN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-40.5	55–3	W	U60.75
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Loose	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
TENN WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB OOU	2-1	67%	2-1
TENN OOO	3-0	100%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 38 earlier overs in games with totals 64.5–72.5, 18% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TENN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UAB 0–6 TENN TENN leads · 6 games since 1998 · TENN has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−11.1 →−13.2▼ 2.1#118

TENN+17.7 →+16.8▼ 0.9#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UAB

Longer bar = better

TENN

#37

Offense

TENN better ▶

#16

#130

Defense

TENN better ▶

#80

−1.0 #113

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

0.0 #71

65 plays #84

Pace

TENN faster ▶

79 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #50	29.0 #106	UAB
Yards / play	6.98 #26	4.76 #51	UAB
PPA / play	+0.23 #47	+0.07 #77	UAB
Success rate	51% #25	43% #86	UAB

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	52.7 #6	36.0 #124	TENN
Yards / play	7.17 #23	7.02 #130	TENN
PPA / play	+0.40 #13	+0.37 #134	TENN
Success rate	53% #21	50% #130	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	10.3 #18	13.7 #21	24.0 #21	7.0 #50	4.7 #89	11.7 #77
TENN allowed	2.3 #27	10.3 #104	12.7 #69	6.3 #92	8.0 #87	14.3 #101

TENN scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	20.7 #1	12.7 #27	33.3 #1	9.3 #25	9.0 #39	18.3 #29
UAB allowed	12.7 #120	9.0 #85	21.7 #116	4.7 #63	9.7 #112	14.3 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.