UL Monroe @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Alabama

Weather at kickoff81°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

1-0 · Power #130

final

Final

Alabama

0-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -34.5

✓ ALA W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 8–42 ALA

✓ ALA (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -36.5

CloseALA -34.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -36.5

2 → ULM

CloseALA -34.5

2 pts toward UL Monroe

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -36.5 · closed ALA -34.5 · moved 2 toward ULMmodel ALA -31.5

model ALA -31.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 48% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (126 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -36.5

CloseALA -34.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like ALA as a 34.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 73–0; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 73 points went over 50.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 45 against an average line of 35; 73 points a game (usually 56.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	AUB vs MASS 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-35	59–14	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM L	0-1	0%	—	—
ALA L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM U	0-1	0%	1-0
ALA O	1-0	100%	0-1

Went over in Q3. Of 451 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ALA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−12.3 →−10.2▲ 2.1#107

ALA+21.0 →+16.0▼ 5.0#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ULM

Longer bar = better

ALA

#54

Offense

◀ ULM better

#100

#24

Defense

◀ ULM better

#104

0.0 #87

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+1.0 #48

69 plays #59

Pace

ALA faster ▶

72 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: ULM offense

	ULM off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #61	31.0 #111	ULM
Yards / play	6.29 #45	6.06 #113	ULM
PPA / play	+0.39 #30	+0.29 #117	ULM
Success rate	41% #78	38% #73	Even

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ULM defense

	ALA off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #98	0.0 #7	ULM
Yards / play	4.74 #98	2.79 #8	ULM
PPA / play	+0.02 #101	−0.18 #27	ULM
Success rate	38% #101	35% #53	ULM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.