UL Monroe @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UTEP

Weather at kickoff80°F2 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

1-1 · Power #130

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-2 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

UTEP -5.5

✓ ULM W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 22–29 UTEP

✗ UTEP (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -4.5

CloseUTEP -5.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTEP -4.5

1 → UTEP

CloseUTEP -5.5

1 pt toward UTEP

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTEP -4.5 · closed UTEP -5.5 · moved 1 toward UTEPmodel UTEP -11

model UTEP -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 58% (130 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (171 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -4.5

CloseUTEP -5.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTEP as a 5.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ULM won 31–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 6; 45.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MTSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-8	34–30	L	O48.5
Close	LT vs MTSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-5	48–21	W	O47.5
Close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	CONN vs GAST 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7	34–27	P	O48
Close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & total	-6.5	14–10	L	U49
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	ULM vs USM 2024 · Week 7 · close	-4.5	38–21	W	O41
Close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	23–31	L	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
UTEP LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; UTEP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UO	1-1	50%	1-1
UTEP UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 382 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
UTEP	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−12.3 →−15.3▼ 3.0#124

UTEP−15.9 →−10.2▲ 5.7#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ULM

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#112

Offense

Even

#101

#127

Defense

UTEP better ▶

#57

−1.5 #130

Turnovers

UTEP better ▶

−0.7 #105

60 plays #127

Pace

Even

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	ULM off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #131	24.0 #78	UTEP
Yards / play	4.89 #122	4.91 #50	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.18 #61	−0.01 #35	UTEP
Success rate	35% #133	40% #63	UTEP

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: UTEP offense

	UTEP off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #98	36.5 #128	UTEP
Yards / play	5.49 #88	6.16 #116	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	+0.32 #133	UTEP
Success rate	37% #125	51% #132	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.5	1.5	5.0	3.5	6.0	9.5
UTEP allowed	5.7 #89	8.0 #84	13.7 #91	5.7 #78	4.7 #51	10.3 #60

UTEP scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.7 #95	9.0 #70	13.7 #86	4.7 #96	4.3 #104	9.0 #108
ULM allowed	10.5	10.5	21.0	5.0	10.5	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.