Troy @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Fri, Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at James Madison

Weather at kickoff28°F3 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Troy

8-4 · Power #99

final

Final

James Madison

11-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -24.5

✓ TROY W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 11–35 JMU

✓ JMU (96%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -21.5

CloseJMU -24.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -21.5

3 → JMU

CloseJMU -24.5

3 pts toward James Madison

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -21.5 · closed JMU -24.5 · moved 3 toward JMUmodel JMU -24.5 matches the line

model JMU -24.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 54% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (253 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -21.5

CloseJMU -24.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 24.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 31–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24 against an average line of 23.6; 56.8 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Very close	AUB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-25	10–31	L	U48.5
Close	ARK vs LT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-23.5	35–14	L	O48.5
Close	JMU vs APP 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-21	58–10	W	O53.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	ORST vs STAN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	62–17	W	O52.5
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-24.5	56–24	W	O55.5
Close	UTAH vs SDSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-22.5	35–7	W	U48.5
Close	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WLLWW	9-3	75%	5-1	5-2
JMU WLWLW	8-4	67%	4-2	7-4

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OUUUU	5-7	42%	8-4
JMU OOOUO	6-6	50%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
JMU	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TROY 0–1 JMU JMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · JMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	James Madison 16 @ Troy 14	TROY -2.5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−7.1 →−8.9▼ 1.8#99

JMU−2.2 →+10.0▲ 12.2#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

TROY

Longer bar = better

JMU

#105

Offense

JMU better ▶

#25

#66

Defense

JMU better ▶

0.0 #76

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #75

66 plays #73

Pace

JMU faster ▶

70 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	TROY off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #86	16.0 #10	JMU
Yards / play	4.90 #123	4.18 #6	JMU
PPA / play	+0.05 #106	−0.08 #5	JMU
Success rate	40% #105	30% #2	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #10	23.9 #64	JMU
Yards / play	6.42 #24	5.65 #74	JMU
PPA / play	+0.18 #36	+0.09 #67	JMU
Success rate	46% #30	41% #59	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.2 #126	7.3 #88	10.5 #113	3.7 #115	9.8 #14	13.5 #53
JMU allowed	2.8 #13	8.3 #87	11.1 #44	2.4 #8	2.5 #2	4.9 #3

JMU scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	7.8 #29	9.5 #52	17.3 #37	10.2 #5	10.4 #6	20.6 #3
TROY allowed	6.9 #102	5.6 #22	12.5 #69	6.6 #99	4.8 #30	11.4 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.