Duke vs Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sat, Dec 6, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff37°F2 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Duke

7-5 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

10-2 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

UVA -3.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 28–32 UVA

✗ UVA (61%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -2.5

CloseUVA -3.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -2.5

1 → UVA

CloseUVA -3.5

1 pt toward Virginia

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -2.5 · closed UVA -3.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel UVA -5

model UVA -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 45% (43 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (118 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -2.5

CloseUVA -3.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 27–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 58.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 4.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM vs UNC 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.25	39–10	W	U64
Close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-1	31–28	W	U60.5
Close	COLO vs BYU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3	14–36	L	U55.5
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	TEX vs OU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	49–0	W	U65.25
Close	UCF vs GT 2023 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & season form	-6.25	17–30	L	U66
Close	ISU vs ASU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	19–45	L	O51
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-5.5	29–6	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DUKE WLLWW	6-5	55%	—	1-1
UVA LWLWW	8-4	67%	—	5-3

Venue/role: DUKE neutral, as underdog; UVA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OOUOO	9-3	75%	7-5
UVA UUUUU	5-7	42%	10-2

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 48% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UVA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DUKE 34–40 UVA UVA leads · 74 games since 1890 · DUKE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Virginia 34 @ Duke 17	DUKE -5.5	UVA W
Nov 18 2023	Duke 27 @ Virginia 30	DUKE -3	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+1.9 →+3.9▲ 2.0#54

UVA−1.6 →+8.4▲ 10.0#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

DUKE

Longer bar = better

UVA

#28

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#48

#108

Defense

UVA better ▶

#26

+0.6 #27

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #20

67 plays #65

Pace

UVA faster ▶

74 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #20	20.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #30	4.97 #29	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #27	+0.02 #30	Even
Success rate	46% #33	37% #22	Even

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #25	29.4 #99	UVA
Yards / play	5.83 #60	6.21 #119	UVA
PPA / play	+0.17 #42	+0.19 #115	UVA
Success rate	43% #66	44% #100	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	6.6 #51	9.9 #40	16.5 #47	7.8 #28	10.3 #7	18.1 #12
UVA allowed	2.3 #8	7.4 #68	9.8 #23	5.1 #58	4.2 #17	9.3 #28

UVA scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	8.9 #14	10.1 #36	19.0 #17	7.9 #25	4.3 #125	12.2 #78
DUKE allowed	7.2 #106	8.8 #91	15.9 #102	6.1 #88	7.4 #92	13.5 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.