Arizona State vs Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, 2025)

Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTTony the Tiger Sun Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff55°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

8-4 · Power #41

final

Final

Duke

8-5 · Power #47

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -4

✓ ASU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 26–29 DUKE

✓ DUKE (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -1.5

CloseDUKE -4

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -1.5

2.5 → DUKE

CloseDUKE -4

2.5 pts toward Duke

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -1.5 · closed DUKE -4 · moved 2.5 toward DUKEmodel ASU -3.5

model ASU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 49%, covered 39% (77 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (121 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -1.5

CloseDUKE -4

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 4-point neutral-site favorite against ASU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 42–39; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 3.7; 44.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Very close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Very close	TTU vs CAL 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–14	W	U55.5
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-3	27–35	L	O49
Close	GASO vs OHIO 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	21–41	L	O48.5
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ASU LWLWL	6-6	50%	—	3-2
DUKE LLWWW	7-5	58%	1-0	5-4

Venue/role: ASU neutral, as underdog; DUKE neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UUOOU	4-8	33%	8-4
DUKE OUOOU	9-4	69%	8-5

Went over in Q2. Of 618 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
DUKE	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+11.1 →+7.6▼ 3.5#40

DUKE+1.9 →+4.4▲ 2.5#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ASU

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#90

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#27

#44

Defense

◀ ASU better

#107

−0.3 #102

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.6 #19

71 plays #16

Pace

◀ ASU faster

67 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #88	28.7 #92	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #75	6.11 #118	ASU
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.18 #115	Even
Success rate	40% #99	44% #101	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #19	23.0 #54	DUKE
Yards / play	6.17 #32	5.02 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #26	+0.03 #40	Even
Success rate	46% #32	40% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	2.7 #131	8.6 #67	11.3 #103	5.8 #69	7.6 #51	13.4 #55
DUKE allowed	6.6 #101	8.6 #91	15.2 #98	5.8 #82	7.6 #96	13.5 #93

DUKE scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	6.6 #46	9.7 #40	16.3 #45	7.4 #33	9.8 #13	17.2 #14
ASU allowed	4.4 #45	6.2 #38	10.6 #38	5.9 #84	6.5 #66	12.4 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.