Iowa vs Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (ReliaQuest Bowl, 2025)

Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTReliaQuest Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff51°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

8-4 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

10-2 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

VAN -3

✓ IOWA W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 23–26 VAN

✗ VAN (59%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVAN -4

CloseVAN -3

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -4

1 → IOWA

CloseVAN -3

1 pt toward Iowa

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Close47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -4 · closed VAN -3 · moved 1 toward IOWAmodel VAN -3.5

model VAN -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 47%, covered 44% (53 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (322 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVAN -4

CloseVAN -3

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 34–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.4 against an average line of 3.3; 45.2 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU vs NCSU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	28–19	W	U48.5
Close	MIZ vs IOWA 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	27–24	W	O41
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	COLO vs BYU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-3	14–36	L	U55.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar spread	-1.5	28–7	W	U48.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–35	L	O49
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IOWA WWWLW	9-3	75%	—	4-0
VAN WWWWW	10-2	83%	—	6-1

Venue/role: IOWA neutral, as underdog; VAN neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA OUUUO	5-7	42%	8-4
VAN UOOOO	8-4	67%	10-2

Went over in Q4. Of 553 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
VAN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+7.8 →+13.4▲ 5.6#22

VAN+3.1 →+16.6▲ 13.5#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

IOWA

Longer bar = better

VAN

#70

Offense

VAN better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#68

+0.2 #58

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #57

61 plays #129

Pace

Even

62 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #58	21.9 #44	Even
Yards / play	5.17 #109	5.47 #60	VAN
PPA / play	+0.11 #65	+0.16 #105	IOWA
Success rate	44% #47	41% #62	Even

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	39.4 #8	15.2 #6	Even
Yards / play	7.53 #1	4.52 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #1	−0.03 #16	Even
Success rate	53% #1	39% #34	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	8.4 #19	9.2 #53	17.6 #26	3.8 #114	7.6 #50	11.3 #92
VAN allowed	5.1 #62	7.8 #76	12.9 #73	3.3 #21	5.7 #45	9.0 #24

VAN scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.1 #65	12.6 #5	18.7 #16	10.3 #4	9.8 #12	20.2 #5
IOWA allowed	3.8 #37	5.6 #26	9.4 #18	3.0 #12	2.8 #3	5.8 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.