Georgia vs Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sat, Dec 6, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Georgia

11-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Alabama

10-2 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

UGA -1.5

✓ UGA W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 26–25 ALA

✓ UGA (52%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -2.5

CloseUGA -1.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -2.5

1 → ALA

CloseUGA -1.5

1 pt toward Alabama

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -2.5 · closed UGA -1.5 · moved 1 toward ALAmodel ALA -1.5

model ALA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (315 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -2.5

CloseUGA -1.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against ALA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 3.1; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Very close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	19–22	L	U51
Close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Close	OSU vs ORE 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	41–21	W	O55.5
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–21	W	U51
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	PSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-1.5	24–27	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UGA LWWLL	5-7	42%	0-2	5-7
ALA LWLWP	7-4-1	64%	—	1-0

Venue/role: UGA neutral, as favorite; ALA neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UOUUU	4-8	33%	11-1
ALA OUUUU	5-7	42%	10-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
ALA	9-1 90%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UGA 27–45 ALA (3 tied) ALA leads · 75 games since 1902 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	Alabama 24 @ Georgia 21	UGA -2.5	ALA W
Sep 28 2024	Georgia 34 @ Alabama 41	UGA -1.5	ALA W
Dec 2 2023	Georgia 24 @ Alabama 27	UGA -5.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+21.0 →+19.4▼ 1.6#8

ALA+21.0 →+21.0–#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

UGA

Longer bar = better

ALA

#33

Offense

Even

#38

#25

Defense

Even

#18

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+0.7 #24

72 plays #15

Pace

◀ UGA faster

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #35	16.5 #11	ALA
Yards / play	5.81 #65	4.86 #21	ALA
PPA / play	+0.23 #22	−0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	50% #10	37% #18	Even

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #26	16.7 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #58	4.85 #20	UGA
PPA / play	+0.21 #30	+0.03 #43	Even
Success rate	45% #38	38% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	6.3 #55	10.5 #29	16.8 #42	8.0 #22	6.9 #63	14.9 #34
ALA allowed	2.8 #18	5.0 #14	7.8 #10	4.7 #47	4.0 #15	8.7 #21

ALA scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	7.5 #31	12.3 #8	19.8 #13	5.6 #80	7.8 #41	13.4 #53
UGA allowed	5.4 #72	3.9 #8	9.3 #16	4.0 #29	3.1 #7	7.1 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.