Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sat, Dec 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

7-5 · Power #91

final

Final

Western Michigan

8-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -2.5

✓ WMU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 20–22 WMU

✓ WMU (56%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -2.5

CloseWMU -2.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -2.5

no move

CloseWMU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -2.5 · unchangedmodel WMU -0.5

model WMU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 43% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -2.5

CloseWMU -2.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 23–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.2 against an average line of 2.9; 49.2 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	3–38	L	U44
Very close	M-OH vs CSU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	43–17	W	O42.5
Very close	NIU vs FRES 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	28–20	W	O40.5
Close	GASO vs SHSU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	26–31	L	O48.5
Close	MSU vs MD 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	38–28	W	O49.5
Close	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-3	30–27	P	O43
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	NEB vs BC 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–15	W	U47.5
Close	PITT vs SYR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-3	13–28	L	O37.75
Close	ARST vs NIU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	19–21	L	U53.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
M-OH WLLWW	8-4	67%	—	1-4
WMU LLWWW	9-3	75%	—	6-1

Venue/role: M-OH neutral, as underdog; WMU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OUUOO	6-6	50%	7-5
WMU OOUOO	6-6	50%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
WMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

M-OH 24–21 WMU (1 tied) M-OH leads · 46 games since 1962 · WMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Western Michigan 17 @ Miami (OH) 26	M-OH -2.5	M-OH W
Oct 14 2023	Miami (OH) 34 @ Western Michigan 21	M-OH -7.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−2.8 →−5.4▼ 2.6#87

WMU−10.1 →−4.9▲ 5.2#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

M-OH

Longer bar = better

WMU

#84

Offense

Even

#88

#38

Defense

Even

#24

+0.7 #21

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #30

63 plays #119

Pace

WMU faster ▶

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	M-OH off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #81	18.7 #16	WMU
Yards / play	5.68 #74	5.04 #33	WMU
PPA / play	+0.08 #86	0.00 #23	WMU
Success rate	41% #93	38% #25	WMU

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	WMU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #96	21.9 #43	M-OH
Yards / play	4.99 #117	4.88 #22	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.08 #85	+0.02 #34	M-OH
Success rate	44% #55	40% #51	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	4.9 #95	7.2 #89	12.1 #95	7.9 #25	6.1 #85	14.0 #46
WMU allowed	4.5 #49	3.9 #7	8.4 #12	3.0 #14	6.8 #70	9.8 #33

WMU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	1.1 #136	9.8 #43	10.9 #108	6.5 #48	6.0 #88	12.5 #70
M-OH allowed	3.1 #21	6.6 #42	9.7 #22	4.8 #51	7.4 #91	12.3 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.