Western Michigan @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

4-3 · Power #80

final

Final

Miami (OH)

4-3 · Power #91

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -2.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 19–21 M-OH

✓ M-OH (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -2.5

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -2.5

no move

CloseM-OH -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

▼ 1

Close40.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -2.5 · unchangedmodel M-OH -2

model M-OH -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (268 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -2.5

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 2.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 26–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 40.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.7; 41 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	SDSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	27–24	W	O47.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	BGSU vs M-OH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	12–28	L	O38.5
Close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Close	M-OH vs NIU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-1.5	20–9	W	U43
Close	CONN vs FAU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-1	48–14	W	O45.5
Close	TROY vs USM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	27–10	W	U44
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	26–41	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU LWWWW	6-1	86%	2-1	3-1
M-OH LWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	4-0

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UUOUU	2-5	29%	4-3
M-OH OUUUO	3-4	43%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 158 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
M-OH	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WMU 21–24 M-OH (1 tied) M-OH leads · 46 games since 1962 · WMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Miami (OH) 34 @ Western Michigan 21	M-OH -7.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.1 →−6.0▲ 4.1#89

M-OH−2.8 →−6.6▼ 3.8#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WMU

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#108

Offense

M-OH better ▶

#74

#22

Defense

◀ WMU better

#49

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #49

68 plays #57

Pace

◀ WMU faster

61 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	WMU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #99	22.0 #50	M-OH
Yards / play	4.71 #131	4.94 #29	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.04 #115	+0.06 #45	M-OH
Success rate	42% #88	42% #71	Even

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	M-OH off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #83	17.7 #21	WMU
Yards / play	5.87 #61	4.59 #16	WMU
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	−0.05 #14	WMU
Success rate	43% #74	39% #36	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	1.4 #135	9.4 #56	10.9 #110	5.7 #74	5.9 #87	11.6 #87
M-OH allowed	3.4 #31	5.9 #40	9.3 #27	4.0 #40	8.7 #119	12.7 #84

M-OH scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	5.0 #91	7.1 #91	12.1 #98	9.7 #10	4.1 #117	13.9 #54
WMU allowed	2.9 #24	4.4 #15	7.3 #14	5.1 #69	4.4 #27	9.6 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.