Ball State @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

2-3 · Power #133

final

Final

Western Michigan

3-3 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -9.5

✓ WMU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 17–27 WMU

✓ WMU (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -9.5

CloseWMU -9.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -9.5

no move

CloseWMU -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -9.5 · unchangedmodel WMU -11.5

model WMU -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 44% (113 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -9.5

CloseWMU -9.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 9.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 42–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 9.4; 40.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	LT vs KENN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	33–0	W	U41.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	14–10	L	U49
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Very close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Very close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Very close	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	28–0	W	U44
Very close	SHSU vs LT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	9–3	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-1	3-1
WMU WLWWW	5-1	83%	3-0	2-0

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; WMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UUOOU	2-3	40%	2-3
WMU OUUOU	2-4	33%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
WMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BALL 22–30 WMU WMU leads · 52 games since 1971 · WMU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Western Michigan 45 @ Ball State 42	WMU -10.5	BALL W
Sep 30 2023	Ball State 24 @ Western Michigan 42	WMU -1.5	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−15.8 →−17.1▼ 1.3#129

WMU−10.1 →−9.1▲ 1.0#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BALL

Longer bar = better

WMU

#121

Offense

Even

#120

#113

Defense

WMU better ▶

#45

−0.6 #111

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

+0.2 #63

58 plays #133

Pace

WMU faster ▶

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	BALL off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #131	20.7 #46	WMU
Yards / play	5.00 #117	4.96 #38	WMU
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	0.00 #29	WMU
Success rate	39% #120	41% #68	WMU

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #116	29.4 #106	Even
Yards / play	4.42 #133	6.14 #117	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #123	+0.26 #128	Even
Success rate	40% #107	44% #102	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.8 #127	4.2 #126	7.0 #128	4.4 #100	5.0 #97	9.4 #115
WMU allowed	3.3 #37	5.2 #29	8.5 #28	6.0 #90	5.2 #44	11.2 #65

WMU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	0.5 #135	8.7 #74	9.2 #120	5.5 #80	4.5 #107	10.0 #107
BALL allowed	11.8 #134	5.6 #42	17.4 #119	4.8 #69	7.2 #86	12.0 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.