Massachusetts @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

0-5 · Power #136

final

Final

Kent State

1-4 · Power #132

▲ winner

Closing spread

KENT -1.5

✓ KENT W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 27–28 KENT

✓ KENT (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENT -2.5

CloseKENT -1.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKENT -2.5

1 → MASS

CloseKENT -1.5

1 pt toward Massachusetts

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KENT -2.5 · closed KENT -1.5 · moved 1 toward MASSmodel MASS -0.5

model MASS -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 48% (159 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (226 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENT -2.5

CloseKENT -1.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KENT as a 1.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KENT won 42–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.6 against an average line of 2.6; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NMSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Close	MTSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	21–36	L	O53.5
Close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	UTEP vs MTSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	13–20	L	U48.5
Close	TEM vs TLSA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-3	20–10	W	U51.5
Close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Close	TEM vs FAU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-2	18–15	W	U50.5
Loose	NMSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	45–26	W	O53
Loose	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-1	24–34	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-1	1-3
KENT –LWLW	2-2	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; KENT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OOOUU	3-2	60%	0-5
KENT –OOOU	3-1	75%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 2 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
KENT	1-9 10%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−14.6 →−22.8▼ 8.2#135

KENT−26.4 →−25.8▲ 0.6#136

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MASS

Longer bar = better

KENT

#135

Offense

Even

#135

#124

Defense

Even

#133

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

−0.6 #109

59 plays #131

Pace

Even

60 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Even matchup

	MASS off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	10.4 #137	44.0 #137	Even
Yards / play	3.92 #137	7.00 #135	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #134	+0.27 #131	Even
Success rate	36% #131	48% #129	Even

When KENT has the ball

Even matchup

	KENT off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	14.6 #134	35.8 #130	Even
Yards / play	4.34 #134	6.15 #118	Even
PPA / play	−0.10 #136	+0.23 #123	Even
Success rate	31% #136	47% #126	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	5.0 #92	4.2 #125	9.2 #120	0.6 #136	0.6 #136	1.2 #136
KENT allowed	13.2 #136	12.6 #132	25.8 #136	11.8 #135	6.4 #72	18.2 #131

KENT scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	2.8 #126	2.8 #133	5.6 #132	2.8 #124	6.2 #81	9.0 #117
MASS allowed	8.2 #121	11.0 #122	19.2 #130	9.0 #127	7.6 #93	16.6 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.