Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Thu, Oct 9, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

3-2 · Power #98

▲ winner

Final

Georgia Southern

2-3 · Power #105

final

Closing spread

USM -2.5

✓ USM W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 30–28 GASO

✓ USM (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -1.5

CloseUSM -2.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGASO -1.5

4 → USM

CloseUSM -2.5

4 pts toward Southern Miss

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GASO -1.5 · closed USM -2.5 · moved 4 toward USMmodel GASO -1.5

model GASO -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (192 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (129 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -1.5

CloseUSM -2.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 2.5-point road favorite at GASO, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USM won 38–35; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 3.3; 55.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Close	ODU @ ARST 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	40–32	W	O58.5
Close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	24–44	L	O62
Close	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Close	JXST @ WKU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-0.5	17–19	L	U62.5
Close	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5
Close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LWWLW	3-2	60%	0-1	2-0
GASO LLWWL	2-3	40%	2-0	0-2

Venue/role: USM away, as favorite; GASO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
GASO OOOOU	4-1	80%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 247 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
GASO	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−18.7 →−9.2▲ 9.5#102

GASO−5.7 →−10.8▼ 5.1#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

USM

Longer bar = better

GASO

#73

Offense

Even

#69

#53

Defense

◀ USM better

#134

+1.2 #10

Turnovers

◀ USM better

+0.4 #51

70 plays #27

Pace

◀ USM faster

64 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #57	37.4 #132	USM
Yards / play	5.52 #82	7.05 #135	USM
PPA / play	+0.14 #75	+0.32 #134	USM
Success rate	42% #78	52% #136	USM

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #84	26.2 #90	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #91	5.30 #60	USM
PPA / play	+0.18 #55	−0.01 #28	USM
Success rate	46% #45	38% #32	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USM scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	9.6 #17	5.4 #113	15.0 #71	6.2 #62	9.8 #21	16.0 #34
GASO allowed	11.8 #132	8.8 #102	20.6 #132	11.2 #134	5.6 #54	16.8 #130

GASO scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	7.4 #51	8.2 #80	15.6 #64	5.6 #73	4.8 #103	10.4 #98
USM allowed	8.0 #116	4.6 #22	12.6 #77	7.2 #111	6.4 #73	13.6 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.