Southern Miss @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F13 mphgusts 29Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Southern Miss

4-2 · Power #98

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana

2-4 · Power #114

final

Closing spread

USM -4.5

✓ USM W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 28–24 UL

✓ USM (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -4.5

CloseUSM -4.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSM -4.5

no move

CloseUSM -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USM -4.5 · unchangedmodel USM -1.5

model USM -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (123 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -4.5

CloseUSM -4.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 4.5-point road favorite at UL, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USM won 22–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 4.1; 58.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	ODU @ ARST 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	40–32	W	O58.5
Very close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Very close	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WWLWW	4-2	67%	1-1	3-0
UL WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: USM away, as favorite; UL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM OOUOO	4-2	67%	4-2
UL UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 2. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UL	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USM 24–5 UL USM leads · 29 games since 1953 · USM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Louisiana 23 @ Southern Miss 13	UL -16.5	USM W
Nov 9 2023	Southern Miss 34 @ Louisiana 31	UL -7.5	USM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−18.7 →−8.4▲ 10.3#101

UL−2.6 →−11.8▼ 9.2#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USM

Longer bar = better

#72

Offense

◀ USM better

#103

#53

Defense

◀ USM better

#114

+1.3 #4

Turnovers

◀ USM better

+0.2 #67

71 plays #25

Pace

◀ USM faster

60 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #50	30.8 #121	USM
Yards / play	5.53 #86	5.74 #95	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #59	+0.18 #108	USM
Success rate	41% #91	49% #133	USM

When UL has the ball

Advantage: USM defense

	UL off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #86	27.7 #95	Even
Yards / play	5.45 #89	5.27 #53	USM
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	0.00 #29	USM
Success rate	36% #132	38% #35	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USM scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	9.2 #19	8.0 #81	17.2 #47	6.3 #61	8.7 #39	15.0 #45
UL allowed	5.2 #68	12.2 #133	17.3 #120	5.7 #80	6.2 #54	11.8 #72

UL scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	3.3 #122	10.2 #48	13.5 #89	2.7 #130	7.5 #60	10.2 #106
USM allowed	7.8 #115	3.8 #14	11.7 #62	8.3 #122	7.7 #101	16.0 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.