Louisiana @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

2-5 · Power #114

final

Final

Troy

5-2 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -7.5

✓ TROY W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 21–29 TROY

✓ TROY (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -8.5

CloseTROY -7.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -8.5

1 → UL

CloseTROY -7.5

1 pt toward Louisiana

Total

Open50.5

▼ 3

Close47.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -8.5 · closed TROY -7.5 · moved 1 toward ULmodel TROY -10.5

model TROY -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (172 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (250 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -8.5

CloseTROY -7.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 7.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 35–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 7.3; 48.6 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	14–10	L	U49
Very close	APP vs CCU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	37–45	L	O48
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	CONN vs GAST 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–27	P	O48
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	35–20	W	O49.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	MSU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	13–38	L	U51.5
Very close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LLWWL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-2
TROY LWWWW	6-1	86%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL OOOUU	3-4	43%	2-5
TROY UUOOO	4-3	57%	5-2

Went over in Q3. Of 481 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
TROY	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UL 9–12 TROY TROY leads · 21 games since 1994 · UL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Troy 30 @ Louisiana 51	UL -7.5	UL W
Nov 18 2023	Louisiana 24 @ Troy 31	TROY -16	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−2.6 →−12.3▼ 9.7#114

TROY−7.1 →−5.4▲ 1.7#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

TROY

#108

Offense

TROY better ▶

#90

#109

Defense

TROY better ▶

#73

0.0 #79

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #76

62 plays #121

Pace

TROY faster ▶

66 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	UL off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #98	24.4 #74	TROY
Yards / play	5.33 #99	5.56 #75	TROY
PPA / play	+0.06 #110	+0.13 #88	TROY
Success rate	38% #124	41% #55	TROY

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #75	29.6 #106	TROY
Yards / play	5.18 #106	5.80 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.16 #101	TROY
Success rate	40% #102	47% #128	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UL scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	3.9 #118	8.7 #70	12.6 #94	2.7 #132	6.4 #76	9.1 #117
TROY allowed	7.0 #103	5.4 #29	12.4 #72	7.7 #118	4.3 #21	12.0 #73

TROY scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	4.4 #105	6.7 #102	11.1 #109	4.3 #109	10.9 #8	15.1 #43
UL allowed	4.4 #54	12.3 #133	16.7 #118	5.9 #85	5.6 #50	11.4 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.