Arkansas State @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

4-4 · Power #110

▲ winner

Final

Troy

6-2 · Power #99

final

Closing spread

TROY -7.5

✓ ARST W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 22–30 TROY

✗ TROY (71%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -7.5

CloseTROY -7.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -7.5

no move

CloseTROY -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -7.5 · unchangedmodel TROY -9

model TROY -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (177 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -7.5

CloseTROY -7.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 7.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 23–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.8 against an average line of 7.1; 49.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Very close	TROY vs UL 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	35–23	W	O47.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	CSU vs USU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	42–37	L	O57
Very close	JXST vs LT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-9	56–17	W	O54.5
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	16–13	L	U50
Very close	USM vs ARST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Very close	CONN vs GAST 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	34–27	P	O48
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	14–10	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LLWWW	5-3	63%	1-3	3-2
TROY WWWWW	7-1	88%	3-1	3-0

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST UUUUU	2-6	25%	4-4
TROY UOOOO	5-3	63%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TROY	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARST 1–1 TROY Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ARST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Troy 31 @ Arkansas State 34	ARST -7.5	TROY W
Oct 7 2023	Arkansas State 3 @ Troy 37	TROY -16.5	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−9.7 →−11.8▼ 2.1#111

TROY−7.1 →−5.9▲ 1.2#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ARST

Longer bar = better

TROY

#93

Offense

Even

#83

#117

Defense

TROY better ▶

#75

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

TROY better ▶

+0.3 #54

74 plays #7

Pace

◀ ARST faster

66 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #98	24.3 #71	TROY
Yards / play	5.09 #109	5.58 #79	TROY
PPA / play	+0.09 #90	+0.11 #81	Even
Success rate	42% #76	41% #69	Even

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #65	28.5 #96	TROY
Yards / play	5.21 #102	6.61 #131	TROY
PPA / play	+0.13 #69	+0.21 #121	TROY
Success rate	41% #97	46% #120	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	4.8 #99	7.6 #82	12.4 #92	3.4 #123	7.9 #47	11.3 #89
TROY allowed	7.0 #104	6.0 #41	13.0 #74	7.1 #106	4.1 #21	11.3 #56

TROY scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	4.8 #99	7.6 #82	12.4 #92	4.6 #97	10.4 #6	15.0 #40
ARST allowed	11.6 #135	5.3 #29	16.9 #118	4.4 #46	7.3 #89	11.6 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.