Texas A&M @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 5:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F7 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas A&M

6-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-4 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

TA&M -8.5

✓ ARK W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 34–26 ARK

✓ TA&M (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -7.5

CloseTA&M -8.5

Total62.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -7.5

1 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -8.5

1 pt toward Texas A&M

Total

Open62.5

▼ 5

Close57.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -7.5 · closed TA&M -8.5 · moved 1 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -8

model TA&M -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 54% (85 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (204 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -7.5

CloseTA&M -8.5

Total62.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as an 8.5-point road favorite at ARK, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 45–42; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 8.5; 51.3 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ OKST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Very close	LSU @ ARK 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.25	13–10	L	U59
Close	SMU @ UVA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	33–7	W	U54.5
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Close	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	24–20	L	U52
Close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Close	SMU @ MEM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	38–34	L	O64.5
Close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Close	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	38–10	W	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LWLWW	3-3	50%	1-0	2-3
ARK WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; ARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OOUUO	4-2	67%	6-0
ARK OOOOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Went over in Q3. Of 425 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
ARK	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TA&M 38–42 ARK (3 tied) ARK leads · 83 games since 1903 · TA&M has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Arkansas 17 @ Texas A&M 21	TA&M -7.5	ARK W
Sep 30 2023	Texas A&M 34 @ Arkansas 22	TA&M -6.5	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+14.3 →+19.4▲ 5.1#9

ARK+8.7 →+9.5▲ 0.8#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TA&M

Longer bar = better

ARK

#33

Offense

ARK better ▶

#11

#29

Defense

◀ TA&M better

#129

+0.2 #65

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

−0.8 #123

70 plays #33

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

68 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #36	30.7 #120	TA&M
Yards / play	6.53 #31	6.33 #125	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.25 #28	+0.31 #135	TA&M
Success rate	46% #38	50% #134	TA&M

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #27	20.3 #44	Even
Yards / play	7.49 #6	4.74 #28	ARK
PPA / play	+0.36 #6	+0.01 #34	ARK
Success rate	53% #3	34% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	7.5 #45	12.5 #18	20.0 #24	5.7 #77	9.0 #31	14.7 #46
ARK allowed	8.7 #123	12.7 #135	21.3 #132	5.5 #77	3.8 #23	9.3 #35

ARK scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	10.8 #10	14.5 #2	25.3 #5	5.2 #85	5.8 #85	11.0 #94
TA&M allowed	6.7 #101	3.3 #9	10.0 #38	4.2 #49	6.2 #55	10.3 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.