Western Michigan @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Massachusetts · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

2-3 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

0-4 · Power #136

final

Closing spread

WMU -12.5

✓ WMU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 31–19 MASS

✓ WMU (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -12.5

CloseWMU -12.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -12.5

no move

CloseWMU -12.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -12.5 · unchangedmodel WMU -9.5

model WMU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 41% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -12.5

CloseWMU -12.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 12.5-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 21–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 45.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.7 against an average line of 11.7; 58.3 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	LT @ NMSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-12.5	30–33	L	O48.5
Very close	BGSU @ KENT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	49–19	W	O41.5
Very close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Very close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-13	42–34	L	O48.5
Close	AKR @ KENT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	38–17	W	O49
Close	FIU @ KENN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	26–27	L	O42
Close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Close	EMU @ KENT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	52–33	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WWLWW	4-1	80%	1-1	1-0
MASS LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UOUUO	2-3	40%	2-3
MASS OOOU	3-1	75%	0-4

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
MASS	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.1 →−10.7▼ 0.6#110

MASS−14.6 →−21.7▼ 7.1#135

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WMU

Longer bar = better

MASS

#127

Offense

Even

#133

#71

Defense

◀ WMU better

#124

+0.4 #45

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

−0.3 #87

67 plays #67

Pace

◀ WMU faster

58 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #119	39.5 #133	Even
Yards / play	4.17 #135	6.26 #120	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #130	+0.25 #124	Even
Success rate	38% #122	46% #117	Even

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	MASS off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	12.3 #136	24.2 #76	WMU
Yards / play	3.88 #137	5.15 #56	WMU
PPA / play	−0.04 #131	+0.05 #59	WMU
Success rate	38% #126	43% #91	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	0.6 #134	9.0 #68	9.6 #118	5.2 #89	4.0 #116	9.2 #115
MASS allowed	10.3 #128	12.0 #124	22.3 #132	9.5 #128	7.8 #98	17.3 #130

MASS scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	5.5 #87	5.3 #116	10.8 #110	0.8 #133	0.8 #136	1.5 #136
WMU allowed	3.4 #43	6.2 #53	9.6 #47	7.2 #113	6.2 #67	13.4 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.