Oklahoma State @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

1-3 · Power #111

final

Final

Arizona

3-1 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -23.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 15–38 ARIZ

✓ ARIZ (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -18.5

CloseARIZ -23.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -18.5

5 → ARIZ

CloseARIZ -23.5

5 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -18.5 · closed ARIZ -23.5 · moved 5 toward ARIZmodel ARIZ -22.5

model ARIZ -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 48% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (124 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -18.5

CloseARIZ -23.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 23.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 41–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 24.1; 58.6 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TXST vs GAST 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-23	44–52	L	O59.5
Very close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Close	JMU vs BALL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-22	63–7	W	O56.5
Close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Close	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5
Close	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5
Close	ARMY vs UAB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-27	44–10	W	U55.5
Close	ILL vs PUR 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-22.5	50–49	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST –LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
ARIZ WWWL	3-1	75%	3-0	2-0

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3
ARIZ UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	1-9 10%	2-7 22%	6-4 60%
ARIZ	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−2.7 →−11.9▼ 9.2#115

ARIZ−2.1 →+4.3▲ 6.4#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

OKST

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#120

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#74

#124

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#19

+0.3 #58

Turnovers

ARIZ better ▶

+1.3 #13

72 plays #24

Pace

◀ OKST faster

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	OKST off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #124	16.3 #26	ARIZ
Yards / play	4.97 #118	4.21 #17	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	−0.11 #13	ARIZ
Success rate	37% #127	35% #19	ARIZ

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #63	35.0 #127	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.10 #54	7.01 #130	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.32 #134	ARIZ
Success rate	41% #100	45% #103	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	6.0 #76	4.8 #118	10.8 #110	2.5 #127	4.0 #117	6.5 #130
ARIZ allowed	3.5 #48	4.3 #19	7.8 #23	7.0 #107	1.5 #1	8.5 #36

ARIZ scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	9.5 #25	9.3 #65	18.8 #38	9.5 #20	3.0 #129	12.5 #78
OKST allowed	11.0 #129	12.0 #125	23.0 #134	9.5 #129	2.5 #9	12.0 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.