Houston @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Houston

4-1 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

1-4 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

HOU -14.5

✓ HOU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 31–17 OKST

✓ HOU (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -14.5

CloseHOU -14.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -14.5

no move

CloseHOU -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -14.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -13.5

model HOU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 54% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -14.5

CloseHOU -14.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 14.5-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 39–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 14.1; 47.4 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	42–34	L	O48.5
Very close	AUB @ VAN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	31–15	W	U49.5
Very close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Very close	TROY @ USM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-17	35–17	W	O48.5
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5
Very close	BOIS @ UTEP 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.25	10–27	L	U44.5
Close	CAL @ COLO 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-15	13–20	L	U49
Close	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	45–17	W	O51
Close	OHIO @ AKR 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	25–14	L	U41.75
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	32–23	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1
OKST –LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOOOU	3-2	60%	4-1
OKST UOUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 447 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
OKST	1-9 10%	1-8 11%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 12–10 OKST (1 tied) HOU leads · 23 games since 1951 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Oklahoma State 43 @ Houston 30	OKST -6.5	OKST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−1.8 →+1.1▲ 2.9#64

OKST−2.7 →−13.9▼ 11.2#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

HOU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#109

Offense

◀ HOU better

#132

#25

Defense

◀ HOU better

#127

+0.6 #43

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #51

66 plays #76

Pace

OKST faster ▶

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #80	36.2 #131	HOU
Yards / play	5.39 #94	6.85 #133	HOU
PPA / play	−0.01 #127	+0.27 #130	Even
Success rate	34% #133	45% #112	OKST

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	OKST off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #132	17.6 #29	HOU
Yards / play	4.58 #132	4.56 #23	HOU
PPA / play	−0.03 #130	−0.04 #23	HOU
Success rate	34% #134	37% #26	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.0 #110	8.2 #80	12.2 #101	4.8 #90	9.6 #25	14.4 #56
OKST allowed	11.6 #132	11.6 #123	23.2 #134	10.4 #131	2.6 #8	13.0 #92

OKST scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.4 #89	4.4 #125	9.8 #117	2.0 #130	4.6 #107	6.6 #131
HOU allowed	4.4 #59	6.8 #59	11.2 #62	1.2 #6	5.2 #47	6.4 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.