BYU @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

BYU

5-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Arizona

4-1 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

BYU -2.5

✓ BYU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 26–23 ARIZ

✓ BYU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -2.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -2.5

no move

CloseBYU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -2.5 · unchangedmodel BYU -4.5

model BYU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (201 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -2.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 2.5-point road favorite at ARIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BYU won 33–27; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3.3; 52.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–31	L	U53
Very close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Very close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-1	10–9	P	U45
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Close	LOU @ PITT 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	34–27	W	O53.5
Close	MINN @ ILL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	14–26	L	P40
Close	IOWA @ RUTG 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	38–28	W	O46.5
Close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	41–43	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2
ARIZ WWWLW	4-1	80%	4-0	1-1

Venue/role: BYU away, as favorite; ARIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OUUUO	2-3	40%	5-0
ARIZ UUUOU	1-4	20%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 411 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ARIZ	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BYU 1–0 ARIZ BYU leads · 1 game since 2023 · BYU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Arizona 19 @ BYU 41	BYU -2.5	BYU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+7.8 →+12.3▲ 4.5#26

ARIZ−2.1 →+5.6▲ 7.7#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BYU

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#19

Offense

◀ BYU better

#65

#13

Defense

Even

+1.0 #20

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #30

65 plays #89

Pace

ARIZ faster ▶

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	38.4 #18	15.6 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.93 #19	3.92 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #15	−0.16 #4	Even
Success rate	49% #22	31% #5	Even

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	ARIZ off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #47	12.2 #7	BYU
Yards / play	6.14 #47	4.06 #7	BYU
PPA / play	+0.12 #85	−0.11 #7	BYU
Success rate	42% #82	38% #30	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	8.0 #33	14.8 #4	22.8 #13	6.6 #61	9.0 #34	15.6 #39
ARIZ allowed	3.4 #36	4.0 #15	7.4 #18	5.6 #81	2.6 #6	8.2 #23

ARIZ scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	10.4 #12	9.4 #62	19.8 #26	10.4 #6	3.0 #127	13.4 #63
BYU allowed	3.4 #36	2.0 #2	5.4 #8	3.4 #34	3.4 #18	6.8 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.