Kansas @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Kansas

3-2 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

UCF

3-1 · Power #66

final

Closing spread

KU -3.5

✓ KU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 28–25 UCF

✓ KU (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -4.5

CloseKU -3.5

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -4.5

1 → UCF

CloseKU -3.5

1 pt toward UCF

Total

Open56.5

▼ 4

Close52.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -4.5 · closed KU -3.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel UCF -1

model UCF -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (170 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (218 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -4.5

CloseKU -3.5

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 3.5-point road favorite at UCF, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 27–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 2.6; 46.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Very close	WVU @ VT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	33–10	W	U49.75
Very close	LOU @ PITT 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–27	W	O53.5
Close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Close	UNC @ BC 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–41	L	O50.5
Close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3	32–39	L	O54
Close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–26	L	U55
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-1	2-2
UCF LWWL	2-2	50%	2-1	0-1

Venue/role: KU away, as favorite; UCF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UUOUO	2-3	40%	3-2
UCF UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KU 1–0 UCF KU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	UCF 22 @ Kansas 51	KU -3	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+6.8 →+7.2▲ 0.4#40

UCF+6.8 →+5.3▼ 1.5#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

UCF

#15

Offense

◀ KU better

#47

#75

Defense

UCF better ▶

#30

+0.4 #46

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

+0.8 #30

61 plays #121

Pace

Even

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #34	15.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	7.34 #11	4.53 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #6	−0.01 #30	KU
Success rate	53% #10	39% #46	KU

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #45	20.6 #52	Even
Yards / play	6.97 #21	5.45 #74	UCF
PPA / play	+0.24 #37	+0.20 #109	UCF
Success rate	42% #85	40% #63	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	12.6 #5	8.8 #68	21.4 #24	9.6 #18	5.6 #91	15.2 #46
UCF allowed	0.0 #1	5.0 #31	5.0 #10	5.8 #91	4.3 #31	10.0 #49

UCF scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	9.5 #24	7.3 #95	16.8 #56	8.5 #35	9.5 #30	18.0 #20
KU allowed	4.0 #48	7.6 #87	11.6 #63	3.4 #31	5.6 #56	9.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.