Akron @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F16 mphgusts 35DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Akron

2-5 · Power #127

final

Final

Ball State

2-4 · Power #133

▲ winner

Closing spread

BALL -1.5

✓ BALL W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 21–23 BALL

✓ BALL (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBALL -1.5

CloseBALL -1.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBALL -1.5

no move

CloseBALL -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BALL -1.5 · unchangedmodel BALL -3

model BALL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (162 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBALL -1.5

CloseBALL -1.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BALL as a 1.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BALL won 42–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 3.2; 54 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Very close	NMSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	TEM vs FAU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	18–15	W	U50.5
Very close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Close	SHSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	34–37	L	O38
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	AKR vs KENT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–27	W	O39.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WWLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-4
BALL WWWWL	4-2	67%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; BALL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UOUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
BALL UOOUU	2-4	33%	2-4

Went over in Q3. Of 295 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BALL	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.5 →−19.8▼ 6.3#133

BALL−15.8 →−19.5▼ 3.7#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

AKR

Longer bar = better

BALL

#125

Offense

Even

#132

#103

Defense

◀ AKR better

#122

+0.1 #70

Turnovers

◀ AKR better

−0.5 #106

66 plays #76

Pace

◀ AKR faster

57 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #130	31.5 #122	Even
Yards / play	4.72 #128	6.17 #119	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.27 #132	Even
Success rate	38% #120	46% #116	Even

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	BALL off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	13.7 #135	29.0 #103	AKR
Yards / play	4.52 #133	6.36 #127	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #129	+0.15 #100	AKR
Success rate	36% #130	42% #81	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.9 #111	6.9 #95	10.7 #111	3.0 #127	3.0 #127	6.0 #134
BALL allowed	11.0 #132	7.0 #67	18.0 #123	5.2 #72	8.3 #112	13.5 #98

BALL scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.3 #130	3.5 #132	5.8 #133	3.7 #116	4.2 #115	7.8 #123
AKR allowed	5.7 #82	10.7 #118	16.4 #114	6.9 #107	5.7 #56	12.6 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.