Central Michigan @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

5-3 · Power #103

final

Final

Western Michigan

4-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -5.5

✓ CMU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 18–24 WMU

✓ WMU (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -6.5

CloseWMU -5.5

Total41.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -6.5

1 → CMU

CloseWMU -5.5

1 pt toward Central Michigan

Total

Open41.5

▲ 2

Close43.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -6.5 · closed WMU -5.5 · moved 1 toward CMUmodel WMU -5.5 matches the line

model WMU -5.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (168 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (263 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -6.5

CloseWMU -5.5

Total41.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 5.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 4.8; 39.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	28–0	W	U46.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	M-OH vs NIU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	20–9	W	U43
Very close	SDSU vs CSU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	45–24	W	O40.5
Very close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	BUFF vs TROY 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	17–21	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WWLWW	5-3	63%	2-3	2-2
WMU WWWWL	6-2	75%	4-0	3-0

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; WMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OUOUO	5-3	63%	5-3
WMU UOUUO	3-5	38%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 310 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
WMU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CMU 1–1 WMU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2024	Western Michigan 14 @ Central Michigan 16	WMU -5.5	CMU W
Nov 7 2023	Central Michigan 28 @ Western Michigan 38	WMU -3	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−14.4 →−9.6▲ 4.8#105

WMU−10.1 →−6.7▲ 3.4#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CMU

Longer bar = better

WMU

#73

Offense

◀ CMU better

#111

#58

Defense

WMU better ▶

#28

+0.8 #20

Turnovers

◀ CMU better

0.0 #68

63 plays #116

Pace

WMU faster ▶

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	CMU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #91	18.8 #25	WMU
Yards / play	5.59 #80	4.84 #24	WMU
PPA / play	+0.21 #34	−0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	42% #85	39% #40	WMU

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: CMU defense

	WMU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #108	24.0 #66	CMU
Yards / play	4.70 #131	5.51 #72	CMU
PPA / play	+0.03 #116	+0.04 #41	CMU
Success rate	42% #87	40% #54	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	7.8 #31	8.9 #65	16.6 #50	6.0 #72	1.9 #135	7.9 #129
WMU allowed	2.9 #18	4.6 #14	7.5 #13	4.5 #48	6.0 #57	10.5 #43

WMU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	1.3 #135	10.0 #42	11.3 #108	5.4 #84	5.1 #102	10.5 #103
CMU allowed	4.3 #43	8.9 #97	13.1 #74	6.5 #98	4.4 #24	10.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.