Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Fri, Oct 31, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

0-7 · Power #135

final

Final

Louisiana Tech

4-3 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -16.5

✓ LT W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 15–31 LT

✓ LT (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -16.5

CloseLT -16.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -16.5

no move

CloseLT -16.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -16.5 · unchangedmodel LT -16

model LT -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 47% (113 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -16.5

CloseLT -16.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 16.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 55–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.3 against an average line of 15.7; 53.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs MASS 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-16.5	38–13	W	O46.5
Very close	TROY vs USM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-17.5	52–20	W	O49
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	NIU vs AKR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-14	29–16	L	O43.5
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	FRES vs NEV 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	20–17	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU LLLWL	1-6	14%	0-4	1-5
LT WWWLL	5-2	71%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OOUOO	5-2	71%	0-7
LT OUUUO	2-5	29%	4-3

Went over in Q3. Of 521 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
LT	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SHSU 2–0 LT SHSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · SHSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2024	Louisiana Tech 3 @ Sam Houston 9	SHSU -10.5	LT W
Nov 11 2023	Sam Houston 42 @ Louisiana Tech 27	LT -7.5	SHSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−8.0 →−20.6▼ 12.6#133

LT−11.6 →−8.2▲ 3.4#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

SHSU

Longer bar = better

#129

Offense

LT better ▶

#110

#121

Defense

LT better ▶

#23

0.0 #76

Turnovers

LT better ▶

+0.9 #19

62 plays #122

Pace

LT faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	SHSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #130	18.7 #23	LT
Yards / play	4.74 #129	5.04 #36	LT
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	−0.04 #19	LT
Success rate	38% #123	36% #14	LT

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #88	38.9 #135	LT
Yards / play	4.86 #123	6.59 #130	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #112	+0.16 #102	Even
Success rate	39% #115	45% #116	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	2.9 #128	4.3 #130	7.1 #130	6.0 #71	3.9 #121	9.9 #110
LT allowed	3.9 #38	5.9 #39	9.7 #35	2.4 #14	5.4 #48	7.9 #16

LT scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	6.9 #57	4.7 #124	11.6 #106	4.4 #104	7.9 #51	12.3 #78
SHSU allowed	8.0 #118	11.0 #124	19.0 #129	7.3 #110	12.6 #135	19.9 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.