Sam Houston @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 10:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff49°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

0-8 · Power #135

▲ winner

Final

Oregon State

2-7 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

ORST -21.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 17–38 ORST

✗ ORST (94%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -18.5

CloseORST -21.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -18.5

3 → ORST

CloseORST -21.5

3 pts toward Oregon State

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -18.5 · closed ORST -21.5 · moved 3 toward ORSTmodel ORST -20

model ORST -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 46% (78 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (220 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -18.5

CloseORST -21.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 21.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 21–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.9 against an average line of 20.4; 57.7 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs KENT 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-23.5	43–7	W	U50.5
Close	TROY vs USM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	52–20	W	O49
Close	SDSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & spread	-23.75	16–14	L	U49
Close	WMU vs KENT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-19	52–21	W	O61
Close	MSST vs MASS 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	45–20	W	O59
Close	BGSU vs KENT 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	27–6	L	U54.5
Close	JXST vs NMSU 2024 · Week 7 · close	-21	54–13	W	O58.5
Close	MSST vs USM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	41–20	W	O47.5
Close	USF vs TLSA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-17	63–30	W	O60
Close	EMU vs MASS 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-20	20–13	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU LLWLL	1-7	13%	0-5	1-6
ORST WLLWW	4-5	44%	3-3	1-1

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OUOOO	6-2	75%	0-8
ORST OUOOU	5-4	56%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
ORST	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−8.0 →−22.4▼ 14.4#135

ORST−5.2 →−7.6▼ 2.4#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SHSU

Longer bar = better

ORST

#123

Offense

ORST better ▶

#98

#130

Defense

ORST better ▶

#89

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

−0.8 #125

64 plays #110

Pace

ORST faster ▶

68 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	SHSU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #130	29.9 #107	ORST
Yards / play	5.05 #111	6.16 #120	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #131	+0.15 #102	ORST
Success rate	38% #118	39% #27	ORST

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #120	40.9 #137	Even
Yards / play	5.09 #109	7.05 #135	ORST
PPA / play	+0.06 #105	+0.20 #119	Even
Success rate	44% #58	48% #130	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	2.5 #131	3.8 #132	6.3 #135	7.0 #43	3.4 #129	10.4 #106
ORST allowed	8.6 #125	9.0 #99	17.6 #124	4.9 #53	7.1 #86	12.0 #69

ORST scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	2.6 #129	4.8 #125	7.3 #130	4.8 #95	7.8 #47	12.6 #71
SHSU allowed	8.8 #126	11.3 #125	20.0 #133	8.1 #125	12.8 #136	20.9 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.