Delaware @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Delaware

5-4 · Power #117

final

Final

Sam Houston

1-8 · Power #135

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEL -13.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

DEL 34–22 SHSU

✗ DEL (80%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEL -8.5

CloseDEL -13.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEL -8.5

5 → DEL

CloseDEL -13.5

5 pts toward Delaware

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEL -8.5 · closed DEL -13.5 · moved 5 toward DELmodel DEL -4

model DEL -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 46% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (147 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEL -8.5

CloseDEL -13.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEL as a 13.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 26–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 12.1; 61 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WMU @ BALL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-10	45–42	L	O57.5
Close	KENN @ NMSU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	24–21	L	U52.5
Close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Close	LT @ NMSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	30–33	L	O48.5
Close	LIB @ MTSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	37–17	W	U55
Close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Close	USU @ CSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	17–13	L	U45.5
Close	UNM @ NMSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	50–40	W	O54
Close	ECU @ TLSA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	38–31	L	O63.5
Loose	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEL LLLLW	3-6	33%	1-3	0-4
SHSU LWLLW	2-7	22%	1-2	2-6

Venue/role: DEL away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEL UOOOU	4-5	44%	5-4
SHSU UOOOU	6-3	67%	1-8

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
SHSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEL−22.6 →−14.4▲ 8.2#120

SHSU−8.0 →−21.2▼ 13.2#134

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

DEL

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#59

Offense

◀ DEL better

#127

#117

Defense

Even

#124

−0.6 #116

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.3 #41

74 plays #9

Pace

◀ DEL faster

62 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEL has the ball

Advantage: DEL offense

	DEL off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #63	38.2 #135	DEL
Yards / play	5.67 #70	6.88 #135	DEL
PPA / play	+0.14 #58	+0.14 #95	DEL
Success rate	45% #45	47% #131	DEL

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	DEL def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #129	31.2 #117	Even
Yards / play	4.90 #123	6.03 #111	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #134	+0.24 #129	Even
Success rate	37% #122	44% #109	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

DEL scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEL scored	4.1 #113	11.2 #21	15.3 #65	6.2 #61	6.6 #71	12.8 #62
SHSU allowed	8.9 #130	10.8 #125	19.7 #132	7.2 #114	11.3 #135	18.6 #133

SHSU scoring against the DEL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	2.2 #132	4.1 #131	6.3 #135	7.0 #43	3.8 #126	10.8 #96
DEL allowed	6.6 #97	8.0 #82	14.6 #92	9.2 #132	7.1 #92	16.3 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.